2010 Illinois Governor - Brady vs. Quinn

11/2/10 7:45am -- Brady has endured a barrage of attacks, and third parties are getting a huge portion of the vote here.  But his lead over Quinn is holding up, and he is the favorite today.

10/10/10 -- The polls in this race have recently been all over the place, varying from an 8-point Brady lead to a 6-point Quinn lead.  One thing that seems consistent is that the polls show Quinn's base coming home; his average in the polls has improved from the low 30s to the high 30s.  Two things could be going on here: the Democrats' advertisements against Brady may be taking their toll, or Quinn could be enjoying a "dead cat bounce."  Regardless, an incumbent pulling his numbers up into the high 30s isn't all that much to celebrate.

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Had you asked a political observer 30 years ago whether an open governor’s race in Illinois would be competitive, you’d likely have received a look normally reserved for those who walk off of UFO’s. Illinois has historically been one of the more politically competitive states in the United States, and a governor’s race in Illinois was supposed to be close.

But in recent years it has become more surprising to hear that a Republican was competitive for a seat in Illinois. Even while beset by allegations of ethical impropriety, Governor Rod Blagojevich was able to win re-election handily in 2006 against the lone Republican statewide officeholder. That set off a series of events that led to the current competitive race. In early 2009, Blagojevich was unanimously impeached and removed from office, leaving his Lieutenant Governor Pat Quinn in charge of the state.

That’s really the root of Quinn’s problems. It’s not easy to be a governor of any state in these troubling economic times, but adding “Rod Blagojevich’s Lieutenant” to the resume would be a kiss of death in all but the most Democratic states. Of course, Illinois is one of the most Democratic states, and the GOP may have helped the governor by nominating Bill Brady, a conservative downstate state senator. There is a reasonable chance that Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents will come home to Quinn in the end.