2010 Maryland Governor - Ehrlich vs. O'Malley

10/10/10 -- O'Malley seems to have stormed out to a substantial lead, somewhere around eight points.  It's not time to put a fork in Ehrlich by any stretch of the imagination, but he needs to start closing that gap, quickly, if he is going to have a chance at winning here.

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Maryland is increasingly a city-state – all of its districts are partially in either metropolitan Washington, D.C. or Baltimore. The state has long been a Democratic stronghold.  In the 19th and early 20th centuries, a Democratic machine in Baltimore combined with voters on the culturally southern eastern shore to form a Democratic majority. In the later 20th century, the Democrats lost the eastern shore, but found increasingly receptive voters in the suburbs of D.C. Post Civil War, the state has elected only six Republican governors, and only one has managed a second term.

The last Republican Governor, Bob Ehrlich, won an open seat against Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, a disappointing candidate for Democrats, in 2002. Ehrlich had a tempestuous relationship with the Democratic legislature, and in 2006 he was defeated by Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley.

O’Malley’s approval ratings declined after imposition of a tax hike and other measures designed to balance the state’s budget. Ehrlich announced his intention to seek a rematch earlier this year.  Both men are below 50 percent in the polls, and since both are incumbents of sorts, the usual “incumbent rule” may not apply.