2010 New Hampshire Governor - Stephen vs. Lynch

11/2/10, 6:59am -- Different polls, same story.  Lynch is the favorite, but if the turnout models are off, he could be in big trouble.

10/9/10 -- Lynch continues to hover around the 50 percent mark, meaning he's still in danger of losing.  But ARG sees him bouncing back from only two points up, while UNH continues to show him with a double-digit lead.  Lynch continues to be the favorite, although he could still lose.

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New Hampshire has always been an oddity.  For much of the 19th Century it was a lone bastion of Democratic politics in New England, and for most of the later 20th Century, it was the sole rock-ribbed Republican state in the area.  Immigrants fleeing Massachusetts’ high tax rates were attracted to the state’s austere fiscal policy and low tax rates, to the point that just about every New Hampshire politician takes “The Pledge” not to raise taxes. 

The state has also been unique in that it has held the first-in-the-nation primary for decades, allowing it a huge say in who becomes President.  Sometimes it has gotten it very wrong – like when New Hampshire Democrats voted for Herbert Hoover as their nominee in 1920 – but it has overall done a much better job of picking the eventual winner than the Iowa Caucuses.

In 2004, as most of the country was moving toward George W. Bush and the Republicans, New Hampshire voted for John Kerry and threw out its Republican Governor, whom it had elected in 2002 by a twenty-point margin.  The new Governor, John Lynch, was elected in 2006 with 74% of the vote, the highest vote total since Democrat Isaac Hill defeated Joseph Healy of the newly-formed Whig Party 81%-8% in 1836.  Lynch’s 2008 total was a similarly-high 70%.

But in 2010, Lynch is looking a bit worse for wear as he seeks to become the first Governor in two centuries elected to a fourth term.  The economy is taking a toll on his approval ratings (44%-41% in an April poll), and he is below 50% in polls against his relatively unknown GOP opponents.  This race is a Likely Democratic hold for now, but Lynch is probably in for his first real race in years.