2014 Colorado Governor - Beauprez vs. Hickenlooper

11/3/14 -- This remains tight as can be, with the most recent polling averaging out to a tie. One would probably give Hickenlooper a slight edge here, given the tendency of polls in Colorado to favor Republicans over the past two cycles, but that's really more of a tiebreaking analysis than anything else.

10/19/14 -- This race continues to look like a nail-biter, with Hickenlooper having a bit of an edge.

10/7/14 -- Beauprez's lead is almost entirely built on a single Quinnipiac poll. This race has been surprisingly underpolled, but Hickenlooper probably has a bit of an edge.

----------Race Preview----------

In 2010, the Colorado Republican Party suffered one of the greatest self-immolations in electoral history. It first nominated Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck over Lt. Gov. Jane Norton for U.S. Senate. Then, the establishment nominee for governor, Scott McInnis, collapsed under the weight of a plagiarism scandal. McInnis lost the Republican primary to political newcomer Dan Maes, who came under fire for misrepresenting his law enforcement experience in Kansas during the 1980s and speculating that bike paths were somehow tied in with a U.N. conspiracy. Further complicating matters, former Congressman Tom Tancredo entered the race as the American Constitution Party candidate.

John Hickenlooper won by a surprisingly handy margin, but his tenure in office has been stormy. Two Democratic state senators from heavily Democratic districts were recalled, while a third resigned rather than face a recall election. Hickenlooper’s re-election numbers against former Republican Rep. (and 2006 nominee) Bob Beauprez have been underwhelming. Either candidate could win this one.