2014 Oklahoma Governor - Fallin vs. Dorman

Although the politics of the Sooner State may seem monolithic -- no Democratic presidential candidate has carried a county since 2000 -- they are actually similar to the politics of many Southern states 30 years ago. There’s an urban/rural divide, with the two larger cities and their suburbs leaning heavily toward the Republicans. There are also geographic divides: The northwest was settled by Kansans and was historically Republican (the panhandle counties gave Obama about 10 percent of the vote in 2008), while the southeast is more Democratic.

These divides explain much of why Oklahoma had a Democratic governor for the 2000s. In 2002, Rep. Steve Largent, a darling of Christian conservatives, was the odds-on favorite to win the governor’s mansion. But Largent was caught cursing at a reporter on camera, which did not play well with his base. In addition, a cockfighting ban was on the ballot, which drew rural Democrats to the polls. Largent had big wins in Tulsa and Oklahoma counties, as well as in the northern tier of counties, but Democrat Brad Henry ran exceptionally well in the rural areas, and upset Largent.

An upset is possible this year as well, but it’s more unlikely. Republican Gov. Mary Fallin hasn’t had the smoothest tenure, but there aren’t many signs that she’s reached the point where state Rep. Joe Dorman has much of a chance against her.  She’s the favorite for re-election.