2006 Indiana - 9
| pollster | date | spread |
|---|
| pollster | date | Hill (D) | Sodrel (R) | spread |
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(November 3) We felt Sodrel had the best shot of holding on to one of three Indiana Republican seats in jeopardy and today’s SurveyUSA is a sign that he may pull this race out in the end. Now, it would be a mistake to put too much emphasis on one poll, but given the slate of polls in this race since Labor Day, all showing Hill ahead, Sodrel will take the one in November showing him up 2. Research 2000 pollster Del Ali who has polled all three of the Indiana races this cycle, suggests Sodrel has a decent shot at winning because Hill was never able to build up a big lead like Ellsworth in Indiana-8. He’s sees both these districts (IN-8, IN-9) as very similar, but thinks Ellsworth got out in front enough of John Hostettler to win, and wonders whether Sodrel’s ability to keep it close will allow him to pull it out on election day.
The President was in the district this week and we think Sodrel has the ever slightest of edges.
(October 22) Where the Connecticut trio (CT-2, CT-4, CT-5) of vulnerable GOP seats have improved for Republicans these last two months, Indiana’s three GOP districts (IN-2, IN-8, IN9) are creating enormous problems for Republican strategists trying to hang on to the GOP’s majority in the House. Jeff Hostettler in Indiana 8 is the #1 incumbent on RCP’s House list and it is safe to say the GOP is almost guaranteed to lose at least one seat in Indiana and they could very easily be swept and lose three. If there is one incumbent to hang on in this group of three (Hostettler, Sodrel and Chocola) it will probably be Mike Sodrel in Indiana 9.
This will be the third consecutive match up between Sodrel and Hill; the Democrat Hill won with 51% of the vote in 2002 and lost by less than 1500 votes in 2004 in a 49%-49% dead heat. This is a Republican district that voted 59% for President Bush in ’04 and Sodrel has a degree of longer term momentum in the district winning 46% in 2002 followed by 49% in 2004. The latest SurveyUSA pegs the race close with a 2 point lead for Hill 48%-46%, which normally would be considered pretty bad news for an incumbent a month out from election day, but compared to the other Indiana GOP seats in play a 2-point deficit is actually pretty good. This race is currently ranked #15 on RCP’s list and should be a good bellwether as to which party has the edge in the fight for overall control of the House.
