2006 Kentucky - 4

From 1998 to 2004, this Ohio River Valley district was represented by conservative Democrat Ken Lucas, who won the seat when Jim Bunning vacated it to run for the Senate. Lucas bound himself to a term limits pledge in 1998, and so refused to seek reelection at the end of the 108th Congress. The Democrats nominated Nick Clooney, whose biggest claim to fame in the district is his newspaper column (and in the nation his son George). The Republicans, meanwhile, nominated Geoff Davis. Despite the former’s Hollywood connections, he was still out raised nearly 2:1 by Davis, who ended up winning with 54% of the vote.

This year, Lucas is back – having decided that his term-limits pledge is not binding on non-contiguous tenures (U.S. Term Limits – believe it or not it is still around! – has agreed that Lucas’ quest this year does not violate his 1998 pledge). Accordingly – the race is a toss-up because it is a battle against two men who are essentially incumbents. Recent polling, for what it is worth, has given Davis slight edges – and Lucas’ fundraising totals as of July were surprisingly low. The GOP is probably in better shape here than they are in other districts that they really have no business losing – IN 08, IN 09, PA 10 and NC 11 – but the Democrats still stand a good chance here.