2006 Pennsylvania - 6

Pennsylvania’s 6th Congressional District is a part of the fast-growing Philadelphia suburbs – one of the several areas in the nation that speak to the peculiarity of the Bush 2004 reelection. Whereas most reelected presidents increase their share of the vote nationwide, Bush’s share of the vote increased in some areas and decreased in others. The Philadelphia suburbs is one area where Bush did worse in 2004.

This is one reason why the congressman from Pennsylvania’s 6th District – 2nd term congressman Jim Gerlach – tops our list of endangered incumbents. In 2004, he beat well-funded, former Rendell aide Lois Murphy by a scant 6,500 votes. Murphy is back for a rematch this year, and – by mid-summer – had raised almost as much as she had in all of the 2004 cycle. Gerlach will have his work cut out for himself in this district. Both candidates are up with TV spots already in Republican-leaning Berks County. Gerlach won the 6th’s portion of Berks by a little more than 4,000 votes, and he will probably have to beat that margin this year. As a sign of just how close this race will be – a late-July poll sponsored by Murphy had Gerlach down only 1 point, which was probably received by nervous Republicans as good news. An RT Strategies/CD poll taken in late August has Mr. Gerlach down 5 points, 50% - 45%.