2012 New Hampshire 1st District - Guinta vs. Shea-Porter

Antiwar activist Carol Shea-Porter won this district in a stunning 2006 upset of Jeb Bradley.  She held off Bradley again in 2008 but fell to Republican Frank Guinta two years later by a solid 11-point margin. Guinta was the mayor of Manchester, from the Democratic-leaning portion of the district. His roots in the Democratic part of the district, the Republican wave, and Shea-Porter's solidly Democratic voting record proved too much for the incumbent.

But Guinta's voting record in Congress has proved troublesome in his swing district, and poll after poll shows him with a weak approval rating. But the Democrats re-nominated Shea-Porter, who is a weak fundraiser and who remains to the left of the electorate.  The polls have been all over the place, which suggests the race really could go either way.