2012 New Jersey 3rd District - Runyan vs. Adler

This Atlantic City/suburban Philly district elected Republican Jim Saxton to the House for a little bit more than two decades before he chose to retire.  Democrat John Adler claimed the open seat by a surprisingly narrow margin in 2008.  Adler lost by another surprisingly narrow margin (three points) in 2010 to former Philadelphia Eagles player Jon Runyan.  Democrats had hoped for a rematch, but Adler passed away in early 2011.

Democrats turned to Adler's widow, Shelley, and had high hopes of reclaiming the seat.  But the reddish seat became a few points redder in redistricting, and Adler has struggled to find any traction.  She's not out of it, but it would probably take a substantial shift toward the Democrats for her to win.