2012 New Mexico 1st District - Arnold-Jones vs. Grisham
| pollster | date | Arnold-Jones (R) | Grisham (D) | spread |
|---|
When Democrats picked up this blue-leaning Albuquerque-based district in 2008, most observers assumed it was theirs for good. But two years later, freshman Martin Heinrich found himself in a surprisingly tough race against Jon Barela, the former Albuquerque Hispano Chamber of Commerce president. Although the polls showed a close race, Heinrich managed to win by a healthy 3.6 point margin.
This year Heinrich seems to be Senate-bound, and this open district leans heavily toward the Democrats. They have nominated Bernalillo County Commissioner Michelle Lujan Grisham, while Republicans opted for former state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones. Republicans had high hopes for Arnold-Jones initially, but she doesn't seem to have gained any traction. A major, last-minute shift in the dynamics of this race would be needed for her to win.
