2006 New Jersey Senate Race

Senate
2004: Lautenberg 54, Forrester 44
2000: Corzine 50, Franks 47

President
2004: Kerry 53, Bush 46
2000: Gore 56, Bush 40
1996: Clinton 54, Dole 36

------------------------------------------

Demographics

Registered Voters: Dem 23.2% | Rep 17.7% | Other 59.1%
Occupation: Blue Collar 19.7% | White Collar 66.5% | Gray Collar 13.8%
Race: White 66.0% | Black 13.0% | Hispanic 13.3% | Asian 5.7%

------------------------------------------

Analysis

might be a sign that he has halted Kean’s recent momentum.

(October 26) The tide appears to have turned once again in this race. Kean had a nice run through mid-September and then Menendez pulled in to a 3-5 point lead in mid-October and now as we approach the end of October it looks like Kean has regained the momentum. On Sunday, we suggested that Kean needed “to turn around the momentum in this race and very soon,” and it looks like he has done just that.

Earlier this week Mason-Dixon’s Brad Coker told RCP that he regarded New Jersey as the Republican's best shot after Tennessee and Virginia in the competitive senate races. The NRSC has also just purchased $4.5 million in NYC and Philly air time to hit the state in the closing days.

This race looks to be going down to the wire as Menendez is back below 45% in the RCP Average, not a great place for incumbents with ethical questions this cycle.

(October 22) Menendez continues to look like he has reestablished control in this race. The latest three telephone polls all show significant movement toward Menendez over the last month. Quinnipiac’s poll moved 7 points, Rasmussen’s 5 points and today’s Monmouth/Gannett a whopping 15 points. The latest RCP Average gives Menendez a 5.7% lead and Kean’s current InTrade bid has fallen all the way down to 26.2.

Given the inherent Democratic strengths in New Jersey and the overall anti-GOP mood pervasive in the national generic ballot Menendez certainly appears in considerably better shape than he did one month ago. We are still rating this race a toss up because of the ethical wild cards involved with Menendez, the fact that he is still closer to 45% in the RCP Average than 50%, the Kean name which helps on the margin and a general anti-incumbent mood which will work against Menendez. However, Kean does need to turn around the momentum in this race, and very soon, to give himself a decent shot on election day.

(October 12) New Jersey had been the one state this cycle where, because of the ethical clouds overhanging Menendez, Republicans thought they had a shot at bucking some of the anti-GOP mood nationwide. In our last update we suggested that Menendez needed to get his numbers above 45% and in 4 out of the last 5 polls he has been able to do that. Kean has clearly stumbled recently and it has shown in the polls as he has gone from a 3.5% lead in late September to a 3.5% deficit in the RCP Average today. Menendez will have a strong Democratic machine behind him down the stretch and on election day, and unless Kean can regain the initiative soon, or some very heavy shoes fall off in the Menendez investigations floating around in the background, this race looks like another opportunity this cycle the GOP is seeing slip away.