2006 Tennessee Senate Race

Senate
2002: Alexander 54, Clement 44
2000: Frist 65, Clark 32
1996: Thompson 61, Gordon 37

President
2004: Bush 57, Kerry 43
2000: Bush 51, Gore 47
1996: Clinton 48, Dole 46

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Demographics

Occupation: Blue Collar 30.2% | White Collar 55.6% | Gray Collar 14.2%
Race: White 79.2% | Black 16.3% | Hispanic 2.2% | Asian 1.0%

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Analysis

(November 3) We moved this race to Leans Republican yesterday and the recent polling data confirms Corker has now established a material lead heading into the election Tuesday. Over 50% in the RCP Average -- in a Republican leaning state -- means he is looking pretty good.

(October 24) Corker has now moved out to a 2 point lead in the latest RCP Average, which is also where new Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen polls peg this race. Corker has picked up three points from the previous Mason-Dixon and four points from the prior Rasmussen. This race looks to have perhaps taken a permanent turn toward the GOP, and while Ford is certainly close enough to have a shot, Corker has the definite advantage with two weeks left.

(October 21) Ford, who has run a very strong campaign to date, appears to have made his first serious mistake with an ill-advised attempt to crash a Bob Corker press conference Friday in Memphis. You can watch the WMC Memphis TV coverage of this here “Harold Ford Junior Crashes Corker Presser.” Corker appears to get the best of this confrontation and this is the kind of thing that can make a difference in a race as close as this one. Ford’s bid in the InTrade market has fallen below 40 for the first time in quite a while.

(October 19) Today’s Zogby/WSJ online poll gives Corker a sizable 7-point lead. The current InTrade market (Thursday morning) gives a slight edge to Corker with his 51.1 bid compared to Ford’s 45.3 bid. We continue to feel Corker maintains the edge in this state.

(October 12) Tennessee has turned in to real dog fight. Rep. Harold Ford has probably run one of the best campaigns this cycle, and it shows, as he is well positioned to pull off a huge upset in a state the Republicans felt pretty confident about holding. Of the six polls in our current RCP Average, which gives Ford a scant 0.8% lead, all but one has the race within two points. In our earlier analysis we felt Corker still held the edge here because of the conservative leanings of the state, but the longer Ford stays clearly in the mix and doesn’t let Corker pull out to a small lead the more likely the upset becomes.

(October 1) Mason-Dixon’s results at first blush look bad for Republicans as this is a race they had hoped would not be this close. But when looking at Ford 43% - Corker 42%, the question that comes to mind is how is Ford going to get that 43% over 50%? When Corker and the Republicans get their ads cranked up in this race they should have a considerably easier time getting his number to 50% than Ford, given the conservative leanings of Tennessee. Harold Ford has run a very strong campaign to date and is an extremely impressive politician, but his family baggage and the fact his base lies in the western part of the state in Memphis, as opposed to Corker's base in the east is going to work against him in the home stretch. Ford may lead by one point in this poll, but Corker holds the advantage.