2006 Virginia Senate Race

Senate
2000: Allen 52, Robb 48
1996: J. Warner 52, M. Warner 47

President
2004: Bush 54, Kerry 45
2000: Bush 52, Gore 44
1996: Dole 47, Clinton 45

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Demographics

Occupation: Blue Collar 22.1% | White Collar 63.7% | Gray Collar 14.2%

Race: White 70.2% | Black 19.4% | Hispanic 4.7% | Asian 3.7%

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(November 3) Four new polls since the Rasmussen 5 point shocker from Sunday night. One has Webb up 4, one has Allen up 3 and another Webb up 1pt, and then today Rasmussen Reports which has Allen and Webb tied at 49%. Allen’s hope is that Webb peaked too soon and maybe the John Kerry fiasco Tuesday and Wednesday convinced enough Republican-leaning voters, who were entertaining Webb, come back home to Allen. But, as long as Allen is closer to 45% rather than 50% in the RCP Average, Webb probably has the edge. This is a race where Kerry could make a difference.

(October 30) Rasmussen has just released what is a little bit of a shocker poll showing George Allen dropping seven points in 5 days. If the direction of this poll, not necessarily the magnitude of the move, but the direction is confirmed by other major polling -- George Allen is in big, big trouble. This race had already crept up to #7 on RCP's most vulnerable Senate seats and Allen had real risks heading into election day just by his inability to shake off Webb when he was leading in the RCP Average. Now with Webb moving out to a lead in the latest RCP Average, the Allen campaign better hope this poll is a weekend produced outlier.

(October 24) Today’s Mason-Dixon poll contains good and bad news for Senator Allen. The good news is he has picked up four points from Mason-Dixon’s previous poll and now leads 47% - 43%. The bad news is he can’t seem to shake Jim Webb.
It’s clear from looking at a graph of the RCP Average that he stopped the “Macaca” bleeding in the first week of September and has maintained a pretty consistent 3-5 point lead ever since, however it is also evident from looking at the graph that the overall tightening in this race has not been a temporary phenomena. A 3 point lead or more in the RCP Average should be all the cushion Allen will need on Election Day, but a last minute close by Webb could make this a very long election night for Allen.
(September 25) The "Macaca" incident has in hindsight completely changed the dynamic of this race in a way we didn't anticipate at the time. Some of this is the fault of the Allen campaign and how they managed the damage control, but much of it is a function that "Macaca" acquired the legs it had because of the fodder in George Allen's background on race. As much as we were right in identifying James Webb as a potential problem for Allen back in February, we were flat out wrong as to the effect of "Macaca" this August.

Bottom line, George Allen is in trouble. And if these next round of polls show this contest tied or Webb ahead, Allen will be in big, big trouble. This is not to say that this race should be chalked up to the Democrats, only that there is a serious, potential upset brewing in Virginia.

However, before one gets too caught up in the anti-George Allen fever of the day, Senator Allen has some powerful factors working in his favor. He has a lot of money, he is running in a red state, and Allen is a very attractive and likable candidate......usually. He won his Senate seat in 2000, 52% - 48% over a tough conservative Democrat in Chuck Robb, when most other close 2000 Senate races were going to the Democrats. But the biggest ally George Allen has, is he still has six weeks to get back on track. The Allen campaign would be smart to start unloading on Jim Webb today, because the longer this race stays tied or very close, the higher the odds climb that Webb pulls off the big upset.

(August 21) The SurveyUSA and Rasmussen polls, post the Macaca incident with the Webb volunteer show a significant tightening in the race, however we feel this is more a temporary blip due to the intensely negative coverage Allen received following his Macaca remarks. The SurveyUSA poll which shows a 3 point race, suggests there has been a 40 point swing among younger voters towards the Democrat Webb. Let’s just say we are highly skeptical of any 40 point swing.

In some ways the wake up call is good news for Allen, as one of Webb’s chances for puling off the upset depended on Allen’s complacency and lack of focus providing Webb an opportunity to sneak up on the incumbent who might have had his eye more on ’08 rather than taking care of ’06 business at home. These polls should remove any complacency the Allen campaign may have had towards Webb's chances, and a focused and well funded George Allen will be very, very hard to beat in November.