2010 Alaska Senate - Miller vs. McAdams vs. Murkowski

10/27/10 -- There is a huge amount of uncertainty in this race, given the controversies swirling around Joe Miller and questions about the ability of Lisa Murkowski supporters to spell her name correctly on the writein ballot.  It's possible -- but by no means probable -- that these factors could conspire to give Scott McAdams a narrow victory.

10/14/10 -- The latest polls have all shown a close race. . . between Murkowski and Miller.  Murkowski has made plain that she plans to remain a Republican, so with McAdams still mired in the 20s, it looks like Alaska will either send a very conservative Republican or a moderately conservative Republican back to DC this fall.

9/30/10 -- The CNN/Time poll shows a much closer race between Murkowski and Miller.  Incidentally, the problem with all of this polling is that voters won't be offerred a choice between Miller, McAdams and "write-in Lisa Murkowski."  It's hard to replicate the situation that voters will actually confront in the voting booth.

Regardless, the polls seem to agree that Democrat Scott McAdams is becoming a non-factor in this race.  The big debate in Alaska seems to be what kind of Republican Alaska will send to Washington for the next six years.

9/28/10 -- What little polling we have seems to show Miller with a substantial lead in the three-way race. Murkowski actually seems to be splitting the anti-Miller vote with McAdams. In addition, she's having some troubles with the write-in campaign; the early campaign ad that actually misspelled her last name sums up the difficulties she faces.

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Alaska was initially admitted to the Union as the political counter-weight to Hawaii. Alaska was supposed to be the Democratic state, while Hawaii would be the Republican state. It worked out that way for a few years, but the party loyalties quickly switched -- Alaska became a staunchly Republican state by the 1970s, while Hawaii became equally as Democratic.

In 2002, Senator Frank Murkowski was elected governor. He created a controversy when one of his earliest acts was appointing his daughter, Lisa, as his replacement. The charges of nepotism led to Lisa Murkowski's narrow 2004 Senate victory, and Frank Murkowski's defeat in the 2006 primary by Sarah Palin.

In 2010, Palin endorsed Lisa Murkowski's opponent, Joe Miller. Miller is a decorated war veteran and Yale law graduate who carries the bearing of a lumberjack. Miller prevailed in the primary and looked to be headed for a closer-than-expected election campaign against Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams. But then Murkowski announced she would conduct a write-in campaign to keep her seat. This certainly scrambles the political calculus, making this race very difficult to evaluate.