2012 Arizona Senate - Flake vs. Carmona

10/30/2012 -- One of the interesting things about recent polls is that they agree Carmona is at about 45 percent support, which is consistent with the natural Democratic tilt of the state.

10/15/2012 -- This race has narrowed considerably in the past few weeks, with Carmona leading in two of the most recent polls. With that said, Flake still leads in the overall average, and the Republican tilt of the state will probably work to Flake's advantage down the stretch.

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When Willis Haviland Carrier was granted Patent No. 808897 for his "Apparatus for Treating Air," Arizona was an overwhelmingly rural stretch of desert in the American Southwest.  Its few residents traced their roots to the Confederacy (north/south migration in the United States would not begin in earnest until the 1920s), and it was therefore overwhelmingly Democratic. But as air conditioning made desert life palatable, increasing numbers of migrants from the Midwest to Southern California decided to drop their bags in Phoenix.  And, gradually, the political demography of Arizona began to change.

Arizona experienced a political earthquake in 1952, when John Rhodes defeated 16-year incumbent Democrat John Murdock by eight points in the Maricopa County-based 1st Congressional District, while Phoenix department store owner Barry Goldwater defeated Senate Majority Leader Ernest McFarland by two points statewide.  By the time Goldwater resigned that Senate seat in 1964 to claim his party's presidential nod, the Republicans were the majority party in the state.

Arizona has since inched back toward the Democratic Party, as suburban areas nationally have trended Democratic and as Latinos increase their vote share in the state.  But it still leans Republican overall, as the GOP has maintained majorities in the state Senate since 1992 and the state House since 1962.  With the retirement of Arizona's junior senator, Jon Kyl, Democrats today find themselves with a thin bench.  They've turned to former Surgeon General Richard Carmona to take on Republican Congressman Jeff Flake.  Flake's solidly conservative voting record might be a bit to the right of the electorate these days, which could possibly give him trouble, though this is still a red state.