2012 Nevada Senate - Heller vs. Berkley

10/30/2012 -- Heller continues to cling to a lead, but the specter of 2010 hangs over his head. If polls are under-sampling Hispanic Democrats, as they likely were in 2010, he could be in real trouble.

10/15/2012 -- Polls continue to show a narrow lead for Heller. In fact, the three most recent polls all show him with a three-point edge, although they disagree about the size of the undecided vote. Perhaps Heller’s biggest concern should be that the 2010 polls significantly overstated Republicans' strength in the state.

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Nevada is really little more than a city-state. At statehood, it was a collection of small silver mining towns, with the population clustering around Carson City in the north.  Today, 86 percent of its votes are cast in the Las Vegas and Reno/Sparks metro areas, with 75 percent of the votes coming from Clark County (Las Vegas) alone.  Moreover, these have been some of the fastest growing urban areas in the United States. The state's politics are thus typically in flux, with politicians having to reintroduce themselves to a whole new slate of voters every four years.

This already tempestuous political situation was thrown further into turmoil when the Las Vegas real estate market collapsed. In 2008, this allowed Barack Obama to win a huge victory in a place that typically had close elections. In 2010 it looked as though this dynamic would claim Harry Reid, the Senate majority leader, but the party's misstep in nominating Sharron Angle, and Angle's gaffes and misstatements on the campaign trail allowed Reid to survive for another six years, despite being massively unpopular. 

This year, Democrats believed that they had a great shot at scandal-ridden Sen. John Ensign.  But he resigned and was replaced by 2nd District Congressman Dean Heller.  Heller will face 1st District Rep. Shelley Berkley.  Heller has avoided major mistakes, while Berkeley has been the subject of an ethics investigation.  But the state has been trending Democratic very quickly; the demographics could simply be too much for Heller to overcome.