2012 New Mexico Senate - Wilson vs. Heinrich

10/15/2012 -- Wilson is still fighting, but she's increasingly the only person waging this battle. The state is simply moving out of Republicans' reach lately.

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For years, New Mexico was an island of Democratic-leaning voting in the rock-ribbed Republican Mountain West. Republicans haven't controlled the state Senate since the 1920s, nor have they won the state House since the 1950s. The state has a Latino plurality, many of whose families have lived in the Land of Enchantment since it was part of Mexico. Geographically, the counties in the north are heavily Latino, the counties in the southeast are mostly Republican, and the city of Albuquerque and its suburbs are a Democratic-leaning swing area.

During the 1970s, the Mountain West leaned Republican enough that New Mexico looked like promising territory for the GOP.  It elected two Republican senators as well as Republican governors.  One of them, Harrison Schmidt, was expected to have a long career in New Mexico politics.  But in the bad Republican year of 1982, he lost to the state's popular attorney general, Jeff Bingaman.

Bingaman decided to call it a career in 2012, opening up what was expected to be a competitive race.  Former Congresswoman Heather Wilson is the Republican nominee, while the Democrats opted for Rep. Martin Heinrich.  In 2008 Tom Udall crushed Republican Steve Pearce by nearly 20 points, but in a better environment for Republicans, a closer race would be expected.