2014 Colorado Senate - Gardner vs. Udall

11/3/14 -- Gardner maintains a clear lead in the polls heading into the final stretch. The party registration of the ballots suggests that he should feel good, but of course party registration and voting don't always match up, and Democrats could see a surge on Election Day. This is a tossup.

10/28/14 -- It may seem counterintuitive, but the CBS/NYT and Marist polls are actually bad news for Udall. The previous iterations had Udall up three and six points, respectively, so they are fully consistent with a race that is moving away from the senator.

10/17/14 -- Gardner has now led in every poll but one since mid-September. His lead is likely “real”; Udall probably needs a late break or for the polls to be simply incorrect to pull this out.

10/7/14 -- The polls are all circling around what seems to be a very close race. One X factor is the advent of mail-in voting, which may skew the pollsters’ voter screens this cycle.

9/29/14 -- Even if the Quinnipiac poll is an outlier, the race seems to have closed and Gardner now has a slight lead.

9/23/14 -- This race seems to have closed somewhat as the parties ramp up their ad blitzes. Udall still has not proved that he can move much beyond 45 percent in the polls.

9/7/14 -- Udall has managed to consistently maintain a lead in this contest, though he remains below 50 percent in most polling. Udall has an edge, but this could still go either way.

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Few states swing the partisan makeup of their Senate delegations as wildly as Colorado does. In the 1960s, the state sent two Republicans to Congress. By 1975, it had two Democrats. The 1980s saw a split delegation, and in the 1990s, after Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell switched to the Republican Party, there were again two Republicans. But in 2004 voters replaced Campbell with Ken Salazar, and in 2008 Mark Udall replaced retiring Wayne Allard with a 10-point win over former Congressman Bob Schaffer.

Defense Impacts: In the militaryís space hub, an Armed Services subcommittee chairman defends his seat with large defense contributions.

More on this race at RealClearDefense

As of today, the state seems to be swinging back rightward. Republicans narrowly missed claiming the Senate seat of Michael Bennet in 2010, mostly as a result of implosions in the nomination process for both governor and Senate. In 2013, Republicans successfully recalled two Democratic state senators and forced the resignation of a third.

When Mark Udall began this cycle, most analysts thought that he was invulnerable. But his approval ratings have sunk along with the president’s. Compounding matters, Rep. Cory Gardner, a rising star in the state Republican Party, changed his mind and opted to challenge Udall in the general election. Udall had hoped to face Bennet’s 2010 opponent, Ken Buck, but now will draw a top tier challenger. The polls have Udall narrowly ahead, but well under 50 percent. This is very much a tossup.