2014 Michigan Senate - Land vs. Peters

10/28/14 -- This is one race where undecided voters are breaking heavily for the Democrats. Land just can't seem to get any momentum going here.

10/7/14 -- Peters seems to be putting this one to bed. There are still an awful lot of undecided voters, and he remains below 45 percent, but Land just can’t seem to get any momentum going here.

9/29/14 -- The most recent polls suggest a slight tightening in the race, although everyone agrees Peters is in the lead. A huge number of undecided voters complicates analysis greatly.

9/8/14 -- We've had some polls showing a closer race, and those surveys have tended to have fewer undecideds. One plausible interpretation is that Peters secured the Democratic base early, while Land is just now bringing home Republicans. Peters still has the edge here, but the race remains interesting.

6/12/14 -- Over the past few months, Land’s edge in the race has deteriorated. Both candidates are still well below 50 percent, but for now, Peters looks like he has the lead.

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For much of its history, Michigan was one of the most Republican states in the union. In 1920, it gave Democrat John Cox just 22 percent of the vote; in 1924 it gave John W. Davis only 13 percent; and in 1928 it gave Al Smith 29 percent of the vote. But in the wake of the sit-down strikes of the 1930s and the high level of unionization that followed, Michigan quickly became competitive. The state was split between "outstate" Michigan, which retained its Republican heritage, and Detroit, which was solidly Democratic. When the Detroit suburbs, like most northern suburbs, swung toward the Democrats in the 1990s, they took the state with them. Michigan has been reliably Democratic at the presidential level since the 1992 elections.

Defense Impacts: With Michigan's defense industry on the ropes, two candidates square off to replace the retiring Senate Armed Services Committee chairman.

More on this race at RealClearDefense

But in 2010, it swung toward the Republicans. Political novice Rick Snyder defeated Democrat Virg Bernero for governor by a stunning 19-point margin, while Republicans racked up impressive majorities in the state legislature. In 2012 the state swung back, giving Barack Obama a 10-point win and Sen. Debbie Stabenow a 20-point victory over a credible opponent.

The big question for 2014 is which electorate will show up. Republicans have a credible candidate in Terri Lynn Land, a former secretary of state. Democrats also have a good candidate in Rep. Gary Peters, who represented the Detroit suburbs before winning a competitive primary for a majority African-American district. Polls show Land with a reasonably consistent lead, but she is a long way from 50 percent. While this remains a tossup, it is hard to see a path to victory for Land until she starts getting above 46 percent of the vote, or so, in polls.