2018 Indiana Senate - Rokita vs. Donnelly

Indiana is an anomaly in many ways. Unlike northern tier states such as Minnesota and Michigan, large portions of the state have a Southern heritage; unlike Ohio and Illinois, it lacks a massive industrial super-city that drew in scores of Eastern and Southern European immigrants around the turn of the century. Because of this, its politics have been very different from those of other Great Lakes states. In the late 19th and early 20th century, it was the most Democratic Great Lakes state. Today, it is the most heavily Republican.

Democrat Vance Hartke won a senate seat in the state in an upset in the good Democratic year of 1958.  He was re-elected in the 1964 landslide. He won a third term in 1970 against a quality Republican opponent, but lost in a landslide to Republican Richard Lugar in 1976.  Lugar won six terms before losing a primary challenge in a landslide to state Treasurer Richard Mourdock.  Mourdock, in turn, made a controversial statement about rape shortly before the election, which went to Democrat Joe Donnelly.  

Donnelly is unlikely to be so lucky this time around. Republicans have a pair of well-qualified potential opponents in representatives Luke Messer and Todd Rokita. President Trump’s low job approval ratings will hurt whoever emerges from the primary, but the red nature of the state pretty much guarantee it will remain on our radar screen.