Adams’ Exit Fails To Shift NYC Mayoral Race

On Sunday, Eric Adams dropped out of the New York City mayoral race, which shifted the odds ever so slightly in favor of Andrew Cuomo to win. Even with some of Adams’ supporters being slightly more favorable towards Cuomo, he still lags far behind Zohran Mamdani.

In the few days since Adams dropped out, there have not been any polls asking about the new state of the race. Before he left the race, however, multiple polls asked voters who they would support if Adams were to drop out.

A CBS News poll, which had Adams at just 6% from Sept. 7-13, found that once he was out, Mamdani inched up to 44% from 43%, while Cuomo’s support rose to 30% from 28%. Curtis Sliwa, the Republican, also rose slightly from 15% to 17%. However, given the dispersed nature of Adams’ support, no candidate gained a distinct advantage after he dropped out.

Other polls had similar findings. In an NPR/Marist poll, without Adams in the race, 30% said they would vote for Cuomo compared with 46% for Mamdani. That made the race slightly closer than the 45%-24% split when Adams was included. A Quinnipiac poll yielded nearly the exact same result, with Cuomo increasing from 23% to 30% if Adams dropped out, while Mamdani remained far ahead, rising from 45% to 46%.

Based on the current state of play, Mamdani is still the heavy favorite, with very little chance of Cuomo winning unless something drastic changes over the next month before Election Day in November.

The only slight chance Cuomo would have is if Sliwa, the Republican who pledged not to drop out even if it meant Mamdani winning, were to drop out. In most polls without Adams, if Cuomo’s and Sliwa’s vote totals were combined, they would be very close to Mamdani’s.

Even if Sliwa dropped out, however, the same polls found that Mamdani is still heavily favored. The Marist poll found that in a two-way contest between Mamdani and Cuomo, 49% would support Mamdani and 39% would support Cuomo. That is because, while Mamdani is considered more progressive than Cuomo and many of Sliwa’s voters would seem more aligned with Cuomo, a large share of Sliwa’s supporters said they either would not vote or would back Mamdani. As a result, even though Cuomo’s support rose from 30% to 39%, Mamdani’s also increased from 46% to 49%.

Betting odds reflect this polling reality. On Polymarket, Mamdani has an 86% chance to win, compared with 13% for Cuomo. Since Adams dropped out, Cuomo’s chances went up 2%, but he remains a long shot unless a late-race bombshell emerges to completely change the race between now and Election Day.