Are NJ and Virginia Governors' Races Now Toss-Ups?

On Nov. 4, Virginia and New Jersey will hold gubernatorial elections, where a few months ago it seemed inevitable that Democrats would win by large margins. While Democrats remain favored in the polls, particularly in Virginia, recent surveys show New Jersey Republican Jack Ciattarelli is within striking distance in a state that typically leans blue.

The biggest polling surprise came in a Hill/Emerson College survey finding Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli deadlocked at 43% among 935 likely voters. A separate poll from Quantus Insights, with 900 likely voters, gave Sherrill a 2-point edge, 48% to 46%.

Other recent surveys tell a more comfortable story for Democrats. Fox News showed Sherrill leading by 8 points, while Quinnipiac put her advantage at 9. Taken together, Sherrill holds a 4.7-point lead in the RealClearPolitics Average.

That’s still a lead, but hardly insurmountable if there is any bias in the polls. In the 2021 governor’s race, for example, Democrat Phil Murphy was favored by 7.8 points in the final RCP Average but ended up winning by just 2.8 points. If a similar polling miss occurred this year, Ciattarelli would actually be ahead by a fraction of a point, effectively turning the race into a toss-up. Betting markets remain skeptical, giving Sherrill a 77% chance of winning, but Ciattarelli’s odds have nearly doubled since Sept. 21, rising from 12% to 23%.

Virginia looks less competitive. Every poll released since early September has Democrat Abigail Spanberger ahead of Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears by at least 6 points. The latest Hill/Emerson survey put Spanberger up by 10, and the RCP Average shows her leading by 7.7. Betting markets echo that outlook, giving Earle-Sears just a 6% chance of pulling off an upset.

History and national mood also point to Democrats being favored in these elections. Since 1977, Virginians have elected a governor from the opposite party of the sitting president in every off-year election except 2013, when they chose Democrat Terry McAuliffe during Barack Obama’s second term. New Jersey, meanwhile, has leaned blue in recent years but showed its willingness to elect a Republican with Chris Christie, who won by 3.6 points in 2009 and by a landslide 22 points in 2013.

Republicans will also have to overcome the drag of Trump’s national standing. His approval rating is at the lowest of his term, -7.7 points in the RCP Average, while Democrats hold a 2.8 point lead on the generic congressional ballot. In typical off-year elections, party image is a significant factor, and that currently favors Democrats.

But New Jersey remains the wild card. If Republicans pull off an upset there, or if Sherrill escapes with only a narrow, less than 5-point win, it would cast serious doubt on the reliability of national polling. Trump’s job approval numbers are especially erratic, ranging from -18 in a Pew Research poll to +6 in an Insider Advantage survey. With margins of error of 3-4 points, a 24-point spread is completely statistically implausible if pollsters had similar samples and methodologies. If New Jersey turns out to be close, it would indicate that national surveys portraying Trump as deeply unpopular are likely overstating the case.