Are Voter Registration Numbers Worrying for Democrats?

Republican voter registration has outpaced Democratic voter registration in the battleground states of Pennsylvania and North Carolina, possibly spelling trouble for Kamala Harris’ campaign.

The presidential race is exceedingly close, especially in the seven swing states. The RCP Average of the battleground states finds the candidates are in a tight battle, with Donald Trump up just 0.4 points on Harris. Unfortunately for Harris, supplemental data like voter registration statistics suggests that the Republican party has made impressive gains in certain swing states over the past year.

When looking at Pennsylvania and North Carolina, two battleground states that release this data regularly, it’s clear that Republicans have exceeded Democrats when it comes to new voter registration.

From the end of September 2023 to the beginning of October 2024, there have been 5,000 more Pennsylvanians to register as Republicans (55,346) than as Democrats (50,440). There have been 56,989 Pennsylvanians to register with another party or no party at all. Trump is up 0.1 points in Pennsylvania, according to the RCP Average.  

In that same period in North Carolina, the Democratic party has seen a net loss of 46 registered voters, while the Republican party has seen a net gain of 100,767 voters. The number of voters registered with another party or as “unaffiliated” has seen a net growth of 298,383. Trump leads by 0.5 points in North Carolina, according to the RCP Average.

This does not necessarily mean people have switched from Democrat to Republican, or that new voters have ceased to register as Democratic in North Carolina. North Carolina’s Election Board recently declared that the state eliminated almost 775,000 individuals from its database over the last 20 months. Where there are currently 2.4 million registered Democrats in North Carolina, there were 2.6 million in 2020. Comparatively, 2020 saw 2.23 million registered Republicans in North Carolina, while this year there are 2.3 million, signaling that there were likely more registered Democrats wiped from the database than registered Republicans.

The views of newly registered voters do not necessarily reflect the preferences of the electorate at large, and a significant number of new voters in both states did not register with either major party. Yet the recent data flies in the face of the historical trend that newly registered voters lean Democratic because they are disproportionately young and non-white.

The statistics suggest that – at least in Pennsylvania and North Carolina – Democrats have been bleeding support among key demographics like young and non-white first-time voters. 

David Paleologos, the director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University in Boston, told The Hill that there has been a shift “away from being registered as a Democrat over the last four years.”

“It’s been more of a decrease of registered Democrats than a surge in Republican voter registrations,” Paleologos explained.

Even if the Democrats’ new voter registration decreased over the past four years, polling data suggests that Harris has shored up support for the party since she ascended to the top of the ticket in late July. 

Recent polling data suggests Harris’ support among young and non-white voters is greater than or on par with Biden’s in 2020. According to 2020 election data in Pennsylvania, 59% of voters aged 18–29 years old voted for Biden compared to 39% for Trump. When looking at non-white voters, the split was 80%-19% in favor of Biden.

If one compares those numbers to the latest polling data on Pennsylvania from Emerson College, it is clear that Harris is at least matching, if not exceeding, Biden’s support among these demographics. Harris has 61% support among Pennsylvanians aged 18-29 compared to Trump’s 37%, an improvement for Harris and a loss for Trump. Harris is polling with a comparatively less impressive 77% support among non-white voters, while Trump has seen a slight uptick with 20% support among non-white voters.

Harris has even better numbers in North Carolina, where in 2020 Biden won 18-29-year-olds 57%-41% and non-white voters 80%-19%. The latest polling out of North Carolina from Emerson College shows that Harris has seen growth among young voters, where Trump has seen diminishing support (63%-30%) and static support among non-white voters (80%), where Trump has lost some support (16%). 

It is then difficult to say whether new voter registration statistics will significantly affect turnout among these key demographics. Still, it should slightly worry Democrats that in a realm where they have historically trounced Republicans – new voter registration – support for the right seems to be growing.