Can Dems Flip Senate Seats in Texas and Florida?

Recent polls suggest Republican Senate seats in Florida and Texas will be more difficult to flip than Democrats had been hoping. An April Cygnal poll shows Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) with a nine-point lead over his Democratic rival, Rep. Colin Allred. Further east, a recent Emerson poll shows incumbent Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) with a seven-point edge on Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.

Currently, Democrats have a 51-49 advantage in the Senate, and Republicans are hoping to seize control in November. Democrats have singled out the seats of Cruz and Scott as opportunities to retain control of the upper chamber.

Cruz beat Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke by less than 3% in 2018 to secure himself a second term in the Senate. Texas hasn’t had a Democratic senator since 1994, yet Cruz’s relatively high disapproval rating (47.5%) gives the left hope that Texans are looking for someone fresh. Allred’s disapproval rating is a much lower 20.4%, but even more respondents – 29.1% – had never even heard of the Democratic challenger.

Mucarsel-Powell faces the same challenge of anonymity in the Sunshine State, though her numbers are far more intimidating. Polls show that 74% of Florida voters have never heard of Mucarsel-Powell, including 61% of Democratic voters and 78% of independent voters the former congresswoman is counting on for support.

These numbers may dampen Democrats’ hopes that the Florida Supreme Court’s recent abortion ruling will hurt Republicans like Scott. Democrats anticipated the stringent six-week ban would incentivize left-leaning voters to head to the ballot boxes in November, giving a boost to candidates such as Mucarsel-Powell.

It seems both Allred and Mucarsel-Powell must increase their campaign efforts if they hope to become serious contenders for their respective Senate seats.