Collins Looking To Challenge Ossoff in Georgia Senate

One of the pivotal races for control of the Senate in 2026 will be in Georgia, where Democrat Jon Ossoff is seeking reelection. Early polls favor Rep. Mike Collins in the Republican primary as his likely challenger, setting the stage for another closely contested election.

A poll taken by TIPP from July 28 to Aug. 1 with 2,956 voters found that in the Republican primary, Collins led with 27%, followed by Rep. Buddy Carter at 20% and Derek Dooley at 8%. The poll was conducted before Dooley entered the race, leaving room for him to potentially gain ground, as 39% were still undecided.

The critical factor in the primary will likely be former President Donald Trump’s endorsement. Given the MAGA-aligned backgrounds of Collins and Carter, there is a possibility Trump will not endorse a specific candidate, but instead back both as “America First Candidates,” as he did in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District primary in 2024, when Abe Hamadeh and Blake Masters both ran on their support for Trump.

Among the candidates, Collins was best positioned to defeat Ossoff in a hypothetical matchup, trailing 45%-44% among registered voters. Carter trailed Ossoff by 2 points, and Dooley trailed by 3.

A 1-point lead for the incumbent more than a year before the election would normally be a good sign for the challenger, because early polls tend to favor incumbents with greater name recognition. However, the fact that this election will be a midterm during a Republican presidency in a swing state like Georgia, combined with Ossoff’s status as the incumbent, has led to betting odds favoring Ossoff at a 73% chance to win, compared with 27% for the Republican candidate.

Georgia’s recent voting history underscores its transformation into one of the nation’s most competitive swing states, despite its past as a reliably Republican stronghold. In 2020, President Joe Biden carried the state by just 0.23 points. Four years later, Trump won it by 2.2 points. In 2022, voters split their tickets sharply, electing Republican Gov. Brian Kemp over Stacey Abrams by 7.5 points while reelecting Democrat Raphael Warnock by 1 point in the first round and 2.8 points in the runoff. As recently as 2016, however, Georgia was firmly red, with Trump winning by 5 points and Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson by 13.8 points.

The general election between Ossoff and the eventual Republican nominee is significant for the balance of power. To win back the Senate from Republicans in 2026, Democrats must hold their seats in Georgia and Michigan and flip seats in Maine, North Carolina, and two additional seats in states that aren’t currently considered swing states, such as Ohio, Alaska, or Iowa, which have voted Democratic in statewide races in the past but have voted for conservatives in recent elections. If Republicans secure the Senate seat in Georgia, it will become nearly impossible for Democrats to regain control.