Democrats and Incumbents See Advantages in Senate Races

The latest polls continue to follow the patterns of surveys from earlier this year, indicating that Democratic senators are likely to heavily outperform Vice President Harris in November. Current data suggests there is both an incumbent advantage in the 2024 Senate elections as well as a general preference for Democratic Senate candidates.

In the swing states, the presidential race remains close, with neither Trump nor Harris holding more than a 3.5-point lead in the RCP Average. However, in Senate swing state polls, the smallest Democratic lead is 4.4 points, according to RCP Averages.

Recent polls reiterate these strong Democratic Senate leads. A Quinnipiac poll in Pennsylvania found that incumbent Democrat Bob Casey leads Republican David McCormick by 8 points, while a New York Times poll put Casey ahead by 14 points. In Nevada, a Cook Political Report poll conducted from July 26 to Aug. 2 found incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen leading Republican Sam Brown by 18 points, even as Trump led in the same poll by 3 points. In Wisconsin, incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin leads Republican Eric Hovde by 7 points in the same poll.

Even in Montana, where Trump beat Biden by 16.4 points in 2020, the Senate race remains competitive for the Democratic incumbent Jon Tester. In the latest KULR-TV poll, Republican challenger Tim Sheehy leads by 6 points, though previous polls showed a smaller lead, resulting in a 4.4-point lead in the current RCP Average.

The most significant divergence between the presidential and Senate races appears in Ohio, where Trump leads by 11.5 points in the RCP Average, while incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown leads Republican Bernie Moreno by 5 points in the Ohio Senate RCP Average.

Democrats are also leading in swing states where there are no incumbents. The Cook Political Report poll found that in Arizona, where Democrat Rep. Ruben Gallego is running against Republican Kari Lake, Gallego led by 9 points in the Cook poll and by 4.4 points in the RCP Average. There is some possibility for Lake to come back, though, as the latest poll from Peak Insights, conducted for the National Republican Senatorial Committee with 800 likely voters, found that Gallego and Lake were tied at 46%. 

In Michigan, recent polls from Fabrizio/Anzalone and the New York Times/Siena both show Democrat Rep. Elissa Slotkin leading former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers, with the RCP Average giving Slotkin a 5.5-point lead.

Meanwhile, in the presidential race, Trump leads the RCP Average in Arizona by 0.8 points, and Harris leads in Michigan by 2.1 points, meaning that non-incumbent Democratic Senate candidates are performing an average of 4.4 points better than Harris in the presidential election.

In Senate races where Democratic incumbents face Republican challengers, the lead is even larger. On average, these incumbent Senate Democrats are leading by 10.32 points more than Harris in their respective states.