Democrats Unpopular, But Still Favored To Win Back House in 2026

Since the presidential election, Democrats have been grappling with low approval ratings and a search for new leadership. Yet despite the historically low approval, they lead in polling for the Generic Congressional Ballot, positioning them to likely reclaim the House in next year’s midterms.

The first half of 2025 was one of the worst periods for Democratic favorability, with most polls showing a net favorability between -20 and -30. In the latest RealClearPolitics Average, only 36.3% of respondents viewed the party favorably, while 59.3% viewed it unfavorably, resulting in a net favorability of -23.

The Republican Party is not a source of optimism for Americans either, however. Currently, only 42.3% have a favorable view of the party, while 54.4% view it unfavorably.

Despite this 10-point net favorability advantage for Republicans, they still trail Democrats in the 2026 Generic Congressional Ballot, which asks voters whether they plan to vote for a Republican or a Democrat in their congressional district. Republicans currently trail Democrats by 2.9 points in the RCP Average, 45.5% to 42.6%. This is a notable indicator because the RCP Average for the GCB has correctly predicted the party to win House control in every election it has tracked since 2002, except for 2016.

One caveat is that the predictive measure is based on the final RCP Average on Election Day. If Trump and the Republicans are able to shift public opinion before November of next year, that could change both the polling and the election outcome.

The discrepancy between party favorability, which shows Democrats trailing, and the Generic Congressional Ballot, which shows Republicans trailing, can be explained by the fact that much of the discontent with the Democratic Party is coming from Democratic voters themselves. In the latest Economist poll, 66% of Democrats said they had a favorable view of how their party was performing in Congress, compared with 79% of Republicans who said the same of their own party. Notably, however, independents actually viewed Democrats and republicans similarly favorably, at 19% and 23% respectively.

This suggests that even though Democrats are viewed less favorably overall, many of those who disapprove still plan to vote for the party, and not from independent voters who could swing the election.

Although the Republican Party remains underwater in favorability, Trump performs slightly better, with 46.2% approving and 51% disapproving of his performance.

Trump’s approval is another key metric because only very popular presidents have helped their party retain the House in midterm elections. The last time this happened was in 2002, when President George W. Bush had a 63% approval rating in Gallup polls. Since then, all presidents have had approval in the mid-40s or below at the time of the midterms.