Harris Takes Lead in National Head-to-Head RCP Average for First Time

Vice President Kamala Harris is leading in the RealClearPolitics Average by 0.2 points, pulling the Democratic ticket ahead of former President Donald Trump for the first time this year.

When President Joe Biden withdrew from the race a little over two weeks ago, he trailed Trump by 3.1 points in the RealClearPolitics Average. Harris took the helm as an underdog, but the sheer excitement of a new Democratic candidate has catapulted the previously unpopular vice president ahead of Trump in seven out of the ten most recent national polls. 

Harris continues to ride her good vibe waves, raising a record-breaking $310 million in the last ten days of July and adding over 170,000 volunteers to her campaign team in the first week of her candidacy. Just this morning, Harris made a play to prolong her moment in the sun by choosing the largely uncontroversial Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate.

Walz, an army veteran, former schoolteacher, six-term congressman and plain-spoken progressive, will join Harris on a tour of seven battleground states over the next few days. The duo will visit Philadelphia (PA), Eau Claire (WI), Detroit (MI), Phoenix (AZ) and Las Vegas (NV). They plan to stop in Raleigh (NC) and Savannah (GA) as well, but travels have been postponed in the face of Tropical Storm Debby.

Not to be overlooked, Ohio Sen. and Republican vice-presidential nominee J.D. Vance will follow Harris to Philadelphia, Detroit, Eau Claire and Raleigh. Vance’s rallies will allow swing state voters to try one message on after another and see which one feels like the better fit. 

It is these seven states that have become the focus of the campaign and will likely decide the election in November. Harris might be enjoying her first (miniscule) national lead against Trump, but swing state averages show a less rosy picture.

Last week’s Bloomberg/Morning Consult polls were encouraging for Harris, giving her a big lead in Michigan and smaller leads in Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada. Still, Trump led in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, while the two were tied in Georgia. These latter three states hold the highest electoral counts of the seven. If the Bloomberg polls were accurate, the election would come down entirely to the results in Georgia.

Despite some improved swing state numbers for Harris, Trump still leads in the RCP Averages of every swing state except Michigan, where Harris is ahead by 2 points. Yet focused swing state polling is sparse, so it is difficult to gauge exactly how the nation’s most purple voters have reacted to the Harris campaign. One could assume that Harris’ increasing national popularity might translate to the battleground map – but only time will tell.