How Will the Israel-Hamas Conflict Affect Biden in November?

Recent polling shows Americans are closely divided on whether the United States should continue providing military aid to Israel as protests roil college campuses and President Biden’s approval rating continues to plunge.

An Ipsos poll finds that while 47% of Americans say they would be more likely to vote for a 2024 presidential candidate who continues to support Israel, another 48% would be less likely to support a candidate aiding Israel, meaning any foreign policy decision regarding the conflict would turn off about half of the voting public. Biden signed a bill on April 24 that included both funding for Israel and humanitarian aid for Gaza.

Biden’s attempt to walk the line – in sending aid to Israel while denouncing its military action in Gaza – has proven unpopular on both the left and the right. His 13th quarter in office garnered him an all-time-low approval rating for any president in history. From Jan. 20 to April 19, Biden averaged an approval rating of 38.7%, according to Gallup.

While there has been a slew of issues facing the Biden administration – chief among them inflation and immigration – the issue of the Israel-Hamas conflict has been particularly plaguing. Students across the country have taken to protesting continued American support of the Israeli military. Some are demanding divestment of their universities while others are calling for a ceasefire. Antisemitic messaging has arisen at the protests as well, causing some Jewish people to feel unsafe and targeted.

While these students and others on the left think the Biden administration is doing far too much to support Israel, many on the right think Biden is to blame for the protests and rising incidents of antisemitism. Police have arrested hundreds of students across the country for trespassing as they refuse to end their demonstrations until their demands are met.

It is difficult to imagine a scenario where this does not affect Biden in November. He trails former President Donald Trump – who has his own PR crisis in the form of a criminal trial – by 1.5 points in the RCP Average. Biden must hope the end of the school year will punctuate this particular moment of tension if he is to gain ground on his predecessor.