Is RFK Jr.’s Candidacy Helping Trump or Biden?

Since Ross Perot’s presidential runs as a third-party candidate in 1992 and 1996, the United States hasn’t seen a third-party candidate get close to a double-digit percentage of the popular vote, as people think the candidate will “spoil” the election for the Republican or Democrat candidate that more closely aligns with their views. Based on current polling, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has the potential to rival Perot's support in the popular vote. However, like Perot, without further analysis it’s not clear which candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s candidacy would spoil.

At first glance at the polls, RFK Jr. seems to be helping former President Trump, as Trump consistently does better in the five-way polls than the two-way. In the current RCP National Two-Way Popular Vote Average, Trump’s lead is 1.1 points, 47.5 to President Biden’s 46.4. His lead increases to 1.8 points when third-party candidates are added, with Trump receiving 41.2%, Biden 39.4%, RFK Jr. 10.6%, Green Party candidate Jill Stein 1.8%, and independent Cornel West 1.8%, in the five-way RCP Average.

In six out of seven swing states, Trump’s lead also increases when the third-party candidates are included. The only exception is Michigan, where Trump goes from leading by 1.1 points in the two-way to 0.3 in the five-way.

However, after further analysis of these polls, Trump’s extra lead likely comes from Biden supporters backing West and Stein, not RFK. In 2016 and 2020, West supported self-described “democratic socialist” Sen. Bernie Sanders for president, and Stein initially supported West’s run for president under the Green Party before West decided to run independently. In other words, both candidates are unlikely to take any votes from Trump, as they both fall to the left of Biden.

In the five-way, if Biden received the support that went to West and Stein, he would take the lead. Instead of Trump having a 1.8-point lead, Biden would lead by 1.8 points with all the votes from West and Stein in the five-way RCP Average.

The swing states show a similar effect. Trump’s support in the multiway race would be less than in the two-way if all the support from West and Stein went to Biden. Trump would maintain the lead in Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia, but Biden would lead by 2.4 points in Wisconsin, 2.8 in Michigan, and 0.9 in Pennsylvania.

All of this is to say that if the race is just between Trump, Biden, and RFK, Biden seems to do slightly better than he does in the two-way race between Biden and Trump. However, because polls with RFK usually also include Stein and West, Trump takes the lead in current nationwide five-way polls.