Is the Union Vote Splintering?

The opening night of the four-day Republican National Convention featured an unusual sight: a keynote address by a labor union leader – in this case, Sean O’Brien, president of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters. 

“When President Trump invited me to speak at this convention, there was political unrest on the left and on the right,” O’Brien said in his speech, highlighting the shock waves a perceived labor-Trump alliance would make.

The Teamsters, a 1.3-million-member labor union, have endorsed Democratic candidates in every election this century. O’Brien’s appearance at the RNC, then, raises eyebrows about where the Teamsters’ support lies this time around – both in the leadership and the rank and file. O’Brien seemed to be sending a clear message that in 2024, Democrats cannot take organized labor’s support for granted.

O’Brien’s populist message also targeted some traditional Republican allies as he also railed against the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Big Business, casting a wide net that included the nation’s biggest box store and popular gig economy behemoths.

“Under our current system, massive companies like Amazon, Uber, Lyft, and Walmart take zero responsibilities for the workers they employ,” O’Brien said. “Today, the Teamsters are here to say we are not beholden to anyone or any party.”

That the Teamsters have not endorsed Biden’s candidacy mirrors a dip in union support for the president. In 2020, Biden won the support of union households (defined as a household with at least one union member) nationally by 16 points, with 56% support compared to Trump’s 40%, according to CNN exit polls. But the Wall Street Journal reports that in 2024, Biden currently leads Trump by a much narrower margin of just five points, 49% to 44%, among union households.

Biden has called himself the “most pro-union president” in history and has the record to match. He was the first president ever to join a picket line when the United Auto Workers went on strike in Detroit last fall, supporting their call for increased wages. His American Rescue Plan and Inflation Reduction Act aimed to create union jobs and provide pensions for retired workers. Unions have recognized his support, and in return, most have endorsed his presidency. But O’Brien’s appearance at the Milwaukee convention may signal a splintering in the union vote.

The Party has stopped short of signaling outright support for unions, but their messaging does emphasize the importance of American workers. For instance, while the official GOP platform doesn’t mention unions, it says the party must “return to its roots as the party of industry, manufacturing, infrastructure and workers.”

Trump, in particular, has stressed solidarity with laboring Americans, claiming he has “risked it all to defend the working class.” 

Republicans have their work cut out for them if they want to chip away at the union bloc, for the GOP has long been tied to pro-business policies. Republicans in Congress have opposed Democrats’ proposal to pass the Protecting the Right to Organize Act, a federal bill supported by labor unions, including the Teamsters. Republicans also do not support raising the nationwide minimum wage, a longtime bullet point on Democrats’ wish list.

Trump and many other GOP governors have also endorsed right-to-work policies, which give workers the choice to join a labor union or not, even if their company is unionized. Unions generally oppose these policies, saying they undermine unions’ ability to negotiate.

Still, Republican messaging might be enough to turn a few thousand heads. Trump makes the case that his economic vision would be better for the working class. He plans to enact a 10% tariff on imported goods if elected, placing domestic industry on a pedestal. Republicans are also tougher on immigration, which they say undermines the job prospects and wages of American workers.

Further, some union members are simply more socially conservative, and their beliefs don’t align with Democratic Party messaging on issues of sexuality, gender, and race.

While O’Brien stopped short of praising Republican policies, he did commend Trump’s personal resiliency after the former president survived an assassination attempt on Saturday.

“President Trump is a candidate who is not afraid of hearing from new, loud, and often critical voices, and I think we all can agree, whether people like him or they don’t like him, in light of what happened to him on Saturday, he has proven to be one tough S.O.B.,” O’Brien said to a roar of applause.

This may be just what certain blue-collar workers are looking for: a tough, no-nonsense, America-first candidate. In key swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where a few tens of thousands of votes could decide the election, support from a key constituency like union voters could make all the difference.