New York Mayoral Race Is Mamdani’s To Lose

In an upset on June 24, Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani won the New York mayoral Democratic primary, making him the favorite to be the next New York mayor in the Nov. 4 election. While polls show him as a strong favorite, certain other candidates would still have a path to the mayorship if rivals were to leave the race.

The latest poll from AARP, conducted with 1,376 likely voters, showed Mamdani leading by a considerable margin, 42% to 23% for former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who lost in the Democratic primary to Mamdani but is continuing his run as an independent. Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, was next at 16.5%, followed by Mayor Eric Adams with 8.8%. Notably, only 7.9% said they were undecided, which, even if fully committed to Cuomo, would not be enough to surpass Mamdani’s 19-point lead.

All polls in the RealClearPolitics Average also show Mamdani leading in the mayoral race. Two months out from the election, he leads by 15 points, 38.2% to Cuomo’s 23.2%, Sliwa’s 16.6%, and Adams’ 10.6%.

If the election were set with these four main candidates, with Mamdani consistently leading by 15 to 20 points in the polls, the election would be close to settled. The betting odds still give Cuomo a 10.8% chance to win and Adams a 2.4%, though Mamdani remains the betting favorite at 85.7%.

This is because there remains a possibility that any of the candidates could drop out of the race, changing the dynamics. The AARP poll found that if Adams, Sliwa, and Jim Walden, who received 2% in the poll, dropped out, Cuomo would rise to 31%, while Mamdani would stay at 42%. This would leave 27% undecided, which could give Cuomo the margin to win if he were able to pick up a large share of those voters. If it were Mamdani against Adams, with the rest dropping out, Adams would only receive 20% of the vote to Mamdani’s 44%, a much harder difference to overcome than Cuomo’s 11-point gap.

At this point, however, all candidates have stated that they are firmly committed to remaining in the race. In July, Sliwa said he would not drop out to help Adams or Cuomo beat Mamdani, even though they are considered more moderate Democrats than Mamdani. Adams also said that he does not plan to drop out, still believing he can beat Cuomo and Mamdani despite polling not yet supporting that conclusion.

Similar to concerns nationwide, the most important issue to New Yorkers in their mayoral vote was the cost of living, at 61.3%. Closely following were public safety, at 53.9%, and housing affordability, at 38.9%. Nationally, the latest Economist poll found that inflation/prices was their top issue, with 22% of respondents citing it as their top concern.