Newsom Leading Early 2028 Democratic Primary Polls

While a little early for any official campaigning, it is clear that California Gov. Gavin Newsom has been trying to expand his national public profile in recent weeks. These efforts appear to be paying off, as recent polls show he has eclipsed Kamala Harris as the early frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028.

The two latest polls from Emerson College and Politico/Citrin both put Newsom 6 points ahead of the next closest competitor in the Democratic primary. In the Emerson poll, taken Aug. 4-5, Pete Buttigieg trailed Newsom 23% to 17%. Harris followed at 11%, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was next at 9%. In the Politico poll, taken July 28-Aug. 12, Newsom led with 25%, while Harris, Buttigieg and Ocasio-Cortez trailed at 19%, 13%, and 10% respectively.

A few months ago, Newsom was not leading. In a June Emerson College poll, Buttigieg topped the field at 16%, followed by Harris at 12% and Newsom at 12%. Before June, Harris led most polls at about 30%, followed by combinations of Buttigieg, Ocasio-Cortez, and Newsom around 10% each.

Newsom’s success in the polls stems from his greatly increased visibility in recent months. He has started a podcast, “This is Gavin Newsom,” which has drawn hundreds of thousands of listeners/viewers with guests such as former Democratic presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke and Rep. Jasmine Crockett, as well as conservatives Charlie Kirk and Steve Bannon.

Over the last few weeks, his team has also started imitating Donald Trump’s all-capitalized tweeting style on Twitter, drawing millions of views. On Wednesday, he continued his parody of Trump’s Truth Social posts, criticizing Fox News in the same style as the President: “WOW! FOX NEWS CAN’T STOP TALKING ABOUT ME (GAVIN C. NEWSOM), AMERICA’S FAVORITE GOVERNOR!!! TONIGHT THEIR ENTIRE PRIMETIME LINEUP WAS ABOUT ME!”

Newsom will remain governor of California until January 2027 and cannot run for reelection due to term limits, after serving since 2019. Over the summer, he toured South Carolina, a likely key early state in the 2028 Democratic primary calendar. While he has not said he is planning to run, signs indicate his candidacy is likely.

Early polls for the Republican who will face the Democratic presidential nominee are more one-sided. An Echelon Insights poll of 1,057 likely voters conducted Aug. 14-18 found that 43% favored JD Vance in a Republican primary. Far behind Vance were Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Ron DeSantis, tied at 9%, and Marco Rubio at 6%.

Newsom and Vance have begun criticizing each other over the last week as well. On Aug. 16, Newsom’s press office began the exchange with a tweet saying, “NOT EVEN JD ‘JUST DANCE’ VANCE CAN SAVE TRUMP FROM THE DISASTROUS MAPS ‘WAR’ HE HAS STARTED. NOT EVEN HIS EYELINER LINES LOOK AS PRETTY AS CALIFORNIA ‘MAP’ LINES.” Vance responded to Newsom’s new style, saying, “This idea that Gavin Newsom is somehow going to mimic Donald Trump's style, I think that ignores the fundamental genius of President Trump's political success, which is that he's authentic. He just is who he is. You've got to be yourself, you've got to actually talk to people honestly about the issues. I don't think it's that complicated; don't be a crazy person, be authentic, if the Democrats did that, they'd do a hell of a lot better."