North Carolina Solidly Pro-Trump, Governor’s Race Tight 

Since Ronald Reagan’s first term, North Carolina has supported Republicans in every presidential election except for former President Barack Obama’s 2008 0.3-point win in the state, but close contests and split tickets have kept it a swing state. In 2024, this pattern seems to be continuing, with polls indicating a strong showing for Trump but a closer contest in the gubernatorial race.

The most recent poll out of the state from American Greatness/North Star Opinion Research, conducted from May 29 to June 2 on 600 likely voters, found that Trump had an 8-point lead over Biden, 49%-41%. His lead in the head-to-head RCP Average for the state isn’t quite as large but still significant at 5.3 points.

The five-way race, including independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, had Trump even farther ahead. He led by 12 points in the poll, with 44% compared to Biden’s 32%, Kennedy’s 9%, West’s 3%, and Stein’s 2%. The five-way RCP Average also shows an expanded lead for Trump, leading Biden by 8 points.

Another significant statewide election in North Carolina is the gubernatorial race. The current Democratic governor, Roy Cooper, was elected in 2016 by a slim margin of 0.2 points and by a larger 4.4-point margin in 2020. North Carolina has a two-term limit for governors, so two new candidates are running for the position.

The Republican candidate for governor is the current lieutenant governor of North Carolina, Mark Robinson. North Carolinians vote independently for governor and lieutenant governor, and while Democrat Cooper won the governorship, Robinson won the lieutenant governorship by 3.2 points in 2020. Robinson’s campaign has been controversial due to his past comments, including a 2018 podcast where he said, “The Civil Rights Movement destroyed hundreds of very well-run Black schools,” and a 2021 interview where he said, “There’s no reason anybody anywhere in America should be telling any child about transgenderism, homosexuality, any of that filth.”

Robinson's opponent is Democrat Josh Stein, who has served as the state’s attorney general since 2017, winning his race narrowly by 0.5 points in 2016 and 0.3 points in 2020. Stein was previously a member of the North Carolina State Senate from the 16th district.

The race between Stein and Robinson is currently neck and neck. The American Greatness poll indicates Robinson is up by 2 points, but the current RCP Average for the race is tied.