North Carolina: Split Ticket Possible

In 2016, former President Trump won North Carolina by 3.6 points, while Democrat Roy Cooper won the gubernatorial race by 0.2 points. In 2020, Trump won the state by 1.3 points, while Cooper won the state by 4.5 points. In 2024, a split ticket is again possible, as Trump leads in the state, but the governor's race is much closer.

The 2024 North Carolina gubernatorial race is between Democrat Josh Stein and Republican candidate Mark Robinson. North Carolina has a two-term limit for governorship, terming out incumbent Gov. Cooper. Josh Stein is a lawyer who served in the North Carolina Senate from 2009 until 2016 when he successfully ran for attorney general of North Carolina, the position he currently holds. Robinson is the current lieutenant governor of North Carolina and has served since 2021.

The latest Public Policy Polling (D) poll, conducted for Clean and Prosperous America PAC, took place from July 19-20 with 573 North Carolina voters. It found that Stein leads Robinson by six points, 48%-42%. The current RCP Average for the race is tighter, with Stein leading by 1.3 points.

The race has drawn controversy in recent days, as Stein launched a new ad called "Unsafe," which alleges that state documents indicate a childcare center run by Robinson was "unsanitary and endangered children." Robinson wrote in his 2022 biography that he owned a daycare from 2000 to 2007. Since Stein launched the ad, Robinson’s attorneys alleged in a cease-and-desist letter that the ad "includes a series of misleading statements, visuals that distort the truth, and false assertions regarding the content of state records" and that the "letter puts Josh Stein and his campaign on notice that this advertisement contains false and defamatory information." 

Stein’s campaign manager, Jeff Allen, has since retorted, saying in a statement that "The ad is factually accurate, based on publicly available information, and, to date, the Robinson campaign has yet to provide any new factual information to refute the ad’s claims."

In the general election race between Trump and Harris, the latest Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll taken from July 24-28 with 706 registered voters found that Trump led by two points against Harris in the head-to-head race and by one point in the multi-way race, including independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and others. In the July 19-20 PPP poll, which was taken before Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris, Trump led Harris by four points. 

The current RCP Average has Trump up three points in the state, while before Biden dropped out, Trump led by 5.4 points. Similar to previous elections in North Carolina, this indicates that there is a possible 5%-6% of voters that could vote for Democrat Stein in the gubernatorial race but for Trump in the presidential race.