Pennsylvania, Wisconsin Key Battlegrounds in Fox News Poll

Fox News released a poll last Friday of four likely swing states for the 2024 election, showing that northern battleground states are the most closely contested. The poll, conducted April 11-16, surveyed more than 1,100 registered voters in each of the states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia.

Georgia had the largest margin between the two candidates, with former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden 51% to 45%, similar to the RCP Average in Georgia where Trump is up by 4.2 points. When independents Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein entered the race, Trump's lead expanded to seven points in the polls and six points in the RCP Average for the five-way race in Georgia.

Michigan also showed Trump leading in the Fox News poll, with a three-point advantage in the two-way race, 49% to 46%, and a two-point lead, 42% to 40%, in the five-way race. These figures are close to the RCP Average for Michigan, where Trump leads by 3.3 points in the two-way race and 2.3 points in the five-way race.

In both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the poll showed a tie in the two-way race. The RCP Averages also show tight races, with Trump leading by one point in Wisconsin and Biden by 0.5 points in Pennsylvania. With third-party candidates included, Biden led in Wisconsin 43% to 41%, and Trump led in Pennsylvania 44% to 42%. This mirrors the five-way RCP Averages, where Trump leads by 2.6 percentage points in Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin is nearly even, with Trump up by only 0.2 points.

RCP is also monitoring three other potential swing states for the 2024 election: Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina. Currently, Trump leads in all these states in the RCP Averages: 4.2 points in North Carolina, 3.2 points in Nevada, and 4.5 points in Arizona. In the five-way race, Trump’s lead expands to 6.3 points in North Carolina, 5.5 points in Nevada, and 5.8 points in Arizona.