Polling for Third Party Candidates Plummets

One month ago, America had the two least-popular major party presidential nominees in living memory: Half of the country (49%) said they would replace both Trump and Biden if they could, showing astounding distaste for their choices in November’s election. It is no wonder, then, that independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was polling with 8.5% nationally. Since Biden stepped down, however, Kennedy is polling at just 5.6% in a hypothetical five-way matchup, according to the RCP Average.

Polling for third party candidates, including independent Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, has plummeted since Vice President Kamala Harris took over at the top of the ticket for the Democrats. 

“The biggest factor that was unique to this election cycle was a deep distaste of both candidates, which opened the door to elevated third-party voting even in a time of record polarization,” said Lakshya Jain, an elections analyst at Split Ticket. “Kamala Harris’s ascension seems to have completely changed this dynamic.”

For a long time, Democrats were worried that third-party candidates would draw support away from their nominee. West and Stein have both campaigned as pro-Palestine candidates, an issue that the Democratic Party’s most progressive wing has threatened to abandon the party over. Kennedy, too, is anti-war, environmentally friendly and pro-abortion rights, making many of his policy ideas appealing to the left. 

Yet it’s not clear whether these candidates, and especially Kennedy, will act as spoilers for Harris – or act as spoilers at all. Since support for Harris has become more pronounced, there have been rumors that Kennedy might drop out of the race.

According to a Kennedy campaign official, RFK Jr. reached out to Harris to arrange a meeting about a possible role in her administration if he were to drop out and endorse her. No meeting between the candidates occurred, the spokesperson told CNN.

This reported overture from the Kennedy campaign comes three weeks after he met with Trump during the Republican National Convention, where the two discussed a possible role for Kennedy in a potential second Trump administration in exchange for an endorsement.

Kennedy continues to push forward on his ballot access journey, though he was delivered a blow on Thursday when his petition to put his name on New York’s ballot was invalidated. The ruling could potentially create problems for Kennedy in other states. Kennedy remains open to dropping out of the race, campaign officials say.

Kennedy campaign spokesperson Stefanie Spear said in a statement to CNN that Kennedy “is willing to meet with leaders of both parties to discuss the possibility of a unity government.”