Polls, Betting Markets Favor Democrats in 2026 Senate Races

In 2024, Republicans won the Senate, attaining a 53-47 majority. With the map in 2026 favoring the GOP, Democrats face long odds in retaking control, though they are very likely to win in multiple swing states that Trump won in 2024.

The biggest swing, based on the latest polls, could be in North Carolina, where former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is running against former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley. In the latest poll from Carolina Journal/Harper with 600 registered voters, Cooper led by four points, and he leads by 3.4 points in the RCP Average.

In 2024, Trump won the state by 3.2 points, a tight but significant win in one of the seven swing states. In the 2022 Senate race, Republican Ted Budd also won by 3.2 points.

Cooper’s 3.4-point lead in the current polls could be caused by a few factors. The most important for election day would be his popularity in the state earned through his tenure as governor. The lead is also likely aided by Republicans’ general disadvantage in the midterms, which can be seen in the 3.4-point lead Democrats have in the 2026 generic congressional ballot. It could also be just a name recognition advantage given his previous governorship, which aids candidates with high name recognition in early polls but doesn’t help as much on Election Day, as both candidates become more well-known going into Election Day.

Betting markets think that Cooper’s lead isn’t just a superfluous name recognition advantage and that it will last until Election Day, with 64% favoring Cooper to win the 2026 Senate race.

Another similar swing state, where Republicans are generally slightly favored but Democrats have had significant wins in recent years, is Georgia.

In the Peach State, the Republican candidate is not yet solidified. In an early poll from August, Rep. Mike Collins led the field, which also included Rep. Buddy Carter and former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley, by seven points, 27%-20%-8% respectively. However, with only 53% weighing in on that poll, there is still plenty of room for Carter to improve before the primary.

Based on the latest poll from Quantus Insights, Collins is the best positioned to beat Democrat Jon Ossoff. According to the poll, taken Sept. 9-12 with 624 registered voters, Collins is tied with Ossoff at 38% each, while Carter trailed by three and Dooley trailed by seven points. The RCP Averages for the matchups also have Collins performing the best, only trailing by 2.3 points, compared to 3.6 points for Carter and six for Dooley. Despite polls being slightly more favorable for Collins in Georgia than for Whatley in North Carolina, the betting markets currently give Democrats a 70% chance to win the seat in Georgia, a slightly larger margin than Cooper’s lead in North Carolina.

The other swing state seat up for grabs is in Michigan, where Democratic Sen. Gary Peters is retiring, opening the race up for two new contenders. On the Democratic side, the race is a close contest between Rep. Haley Stevens, Bernie Sanders-endorsed former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow. 2024 Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers has secured the Trump endorsement for the 2026 Senate race, effectively securing him the Republican primary.

While polling on the race is sparse, betting markets also have this race very Democrat favored, currently giving Democrats a 78% chance to win the seat.

Despite Democrats being favored in all three of these Senate races, because all of them are seats where the incumbents are Democrats, winning these seats won’t significantly aid them in regaining a majority in the Senate.

The only seat where there’s a significant likelihood that Democrats could flip is Maine, where Republican Sen. Susan Collins is the incumbent, despite Kamala Harris winning the state by seven points in 2024. In 2020, in fact, Collins won the state by 8.6 points despite Biden winning the state by nine points.

One poll by Public Policy Polling, a firm that often works with Democratic campaigns, found that the 28-year incumbent Collins trailed potential Democratic candidate Dan Kleban by nine points. This poll should be taken with caution, however, as betting markets put Collins’ chances of winning at the highest of all the races, at 44%.

Even if Democrats can pull out a win in Maine, that would still only get them to 48 seats. To win back the Senate and attain a majority, they would have to hold all their seats and, in addition to Maine, win in three other states like Ohio, Alaska, and Texas, which may have in the past elected Democrats but heavily favor Republicans in 2026.