Polls Show Biden Losing Support Among Black and Hispanic Voters

To secure a second term, President Biden may need to shore up his support among minority voters – in the nationwide horserace among all voters he is currently polling one point behind former President Donald Trump, according to the RCP Average.

Exit polls from the 2020 election estimate Trump won 12% of the black vote, 32% of the Hispanic vote, 31% of the Asian vote, and 57% of the white vote. Biden’s highest share of support was among African American voters at 87%, but he doubled Trump’s support among Hispanic and Asian voters as well.

Voters of color make up a critical mass of the Democratic coalition. The left has focused on emphasizing diversity, equity, and inclusion or “DEI” measures to hold tightly to their base. 

Yet polling shows that voters – no matter their race – care less about identity politics and more about the tangible. Above all, their focus is on their money and the economic outlook. A recent Fox News survey shows 89% of voters say the economy is either “extremely” (61%) or “very” (28%) important in deciding their vote for president.

This is potentially bad news for Biden, who has presided during a time of painful inflation. Research by Moody Analytics suggests the typical family paid an extra $709 per month in 2023 compared to 2021, or more than $8,500 a year in additional cost for the same goods and services. These numbers are likely why 61% of voters disapprove of Biden’s handling of the economy. 

“Life is just more of a squeeze than it was from what [voters] remember the early years of the Trump presidency,” said CNN senior political analyst Ron Brownstein. “The nightmare phrase that we hear in focus groups all the time is, ‘I don’t like Donald Trump, I don’t like what he says, I think he’s a racist, but if I’m being honest, I had more money in my pocket at the end of the week when he was president.’”

To lose support among black and Hispanic voters would be especially problematic for the Biden campaign, but this is precisely what the numbers suggest. A recent Quinnipiac University poll puts Trump’s support among black voters at 23% (Biden claimed 69% support), and shows Trump’s support among Hispanic voters (47%) topping Biden’s (44%). If these numbers hold, Biden will be the first Democratic nominee since the civil rights era to earn less than 80% of the black vote, making this a potentially historic election indeed.