Senate Races Leaning Democrat in Swing States

Despite former President Donald Trump’s lead in swing states in the National RCP Average, another significant aspect of the next president's term and policies will be the makeup of the Senate. Even in swing states where Trump leads by multiple points, Democrats appear to be ahead in major Senate races.

A recent Hill/Emerson poll of 1,000 voters in each swing state conducted April 25-29 examined the differences between the presidential and Senate races.

The poll first examined Arizona, where Trump led President Joe Biden by four points. In the Senate election, Democrat Ruben Gallego, a former Marine and current U.S. representative for Arizona's 3rd Congressional District, leads Republican Kari Lake, the state's 2022 gubernatorial candidate, 45%-43%. Gallego has led in every Senate poll from the state and currently leads the RCP Average for the Arizona Senate race by six points.

In Pennsylvania, the Senate race features incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey and former Under Secretary of the Treasury and Deputy National Security Advisor, Republican David McCormick. Though Trump led by two points in the poll, Casey led McCormick 46%-42% and currently leads the RCP Average for the Pennsylvania Senate race by 46.5%-40.5%.

Michigan's Senate race is another open seat where Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin from Michigan's 7th Congressional District will face former Republican Rep. Mike Rodgers from Michigan's 8th Congressional District. Trump led in the poll 45%-44%, but Slotkin led Rodgers 42%-40%. The RCP Average for the Michigan Senate race still has this race as a toss-up with Slotkin leading by only one point. 

In Wisconsin, incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin leads Republican businessman Eric Hovde 46%-43%, despite Trump’s two-point lead in the state. Baldwin also leads the RCP Average for the Wisconsin Senate race 48.7%-43.7%. 

The last swing state with a Senate race this cycle is Nevada. The major contenders in the Republican primary for the Senate seat are former infantry officer and small businessman Sam Brown and former Ambassador to Iceland Jeff Gunter. In matchups with Democratic incumbent Jacky Rosen, Rosen leads Brown 45%-37% and leads Gunter 47%-33%.