Swing States in Focus Amid Conflicting Poll Results

In the weeks since Kamala Harris became the Democratic presidential nominee, she has taken a narrow lead in the nationwide RealClearPolitics Polling Average, currently leading by 0.5 points. However, the election will be decided by a few swing states, where conflicting polls were released over the weekend by three pollsters: Insider Advantage, Trafalgar Group (R), and The New York Times/Siena.

The NYT poll, conducted Aug. 5-8 with 619-693 likely voters per state, found Harris leading by four points, 50%-46%, in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. When third parties were included, her lead shrank to two points in Pennsylvania but expanded to five points in Michigan and six in Wisconsin. Insider Advantage, which polled 800 likely voters per state from Aug. 6-8, found Harris leading in Michigan by two points.

In other swing states, however, both Insider Advantage and Trafalgar found Trump was ahead. In Wisconsin, Insider Advantage showed Trump leading by one point, 49%-48%, a five-point difference from the NYT poll. The Trafalgar poll, conducted Aug. 6-8 with 1,000 likely voters per state, had Trump up by two points in Pennsylvania, a six-point swing.

In southern swing states, Trafalgar found Trump ahead by one point in Arizona, four points in North Carolina, and three points in Nevada. Another poll from the Carolina Journal/Cygnal, conducted Aug. 4-5 with 600 likely voters, showed Trump leading Harris by three points in North Carolina.

Georgia was the only swing state not analyzed by those polls. The latest released poll from Fabrizio/Anzalone, conducted July 24-31 with 600 likely voters, found Trump and Harris were tied in a head-to-head race, with Trump leading by two points when third parties are included in Georgia.

The current RCP Averages indicate a tight race. In a head-to-head matchup, Trump would win, trailing only in Wisconsin and Michigan, giving him 287 electoral votes to Harris’ 251. In a five-way race, Harris leads in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, giving her 270 electoral votes to Trump’s 268.

Some polls also examined Senate races in swing states, where Democrats generally lead. In the NYT poll, Democrat Rep. Elissa Slotkin leads former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers by three points in Michigan. In Pennsylvania, incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey leads David McCormick by 14 points, and in Wisconsin, incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin leads entrepreneur Eric Hovde by seven points.

Despite Democratic Senate leads in most swing states, Republicans need only win in Montana to take a Senate majority in November. A recent Hill/Emerson poll found Republican veteran and businessman Tim Sheehy leading incumbent Democrat Jon Tester by two points, with the current RCP Average showing Sheehy up by 3.5 points.