Trump Ahead in Arizona, Kari Lake Falls Behind

Arizona has been a crucial swing state in recent elections, with former President Trump winning the state in 2016 and President Biden winning in 2020. Current polls suggest that former President Donald Trump is favored in the state for the 2024 presidential election, but the polls on the Senate race might not bode well for Republicans.

A recent CBS News poll conducted May 10-16 surveyed 1,510 adults from Arizona on these issues. In the presidential election, Trump leads President Joe Biden by 5 points, 52% to 47%. This aligns with the current RCP Average for the Arizona presidential election, which shows Trump ahead 49% to 43.8%. Trump maintains his lead in the RCP Average for Arizona when third-party candidates are included, leading Biden 43.2% to 37.6%, with independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 9.4%, independent Cornel West at 1.6%, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 1%.

Much of Trump's lead appears to stem from voters' perceptions of his ability to handle the economy, as the economy and inflation are the two most important issues for Arizona voters. A majority of Arizonans, 52%, believe Biden's policies would make them worse off financially if he won a second term, while 17% think they would be better off, and 31% believe they would be about the same. If Trump wins, 45% think they would be better off, while 36% think they would be worse off, and 19% believe they would stay about the same.

Another important issue for Arizona residents is abortion. Last month, the Arizona Supreme Court ruled that a bill banning abortion from the moment of conception in all cases except to save the mother's life was still enforceable. However, this month, Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs repealed the 1864 bill, reverting the state to a 15-week abortion ban policy passed in 2022. The poll found that 72% approved of Katie Hobbs’ move to repeal the bill, and 65% would vote for an amendment to establish a constitutional right to an abortion.

Despite Trump’s 5-point lead in the state, the Senate race is not looking favorable for Republicans. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, a Democrat-turned-independent who currently sits in the seat, announced her retirement from the Senate last month. The Senate race will now be between Ruben Gallego, a current U.S. representative for Arizona's 3rd Congressional District, and Kari Lake, who ran for governor of Arizona in 2022. The CBS poll shows Gallego ahead by 13 points over Lake, 49% to 36%, and the current RCP Average for the Arizona Senate election has Gallego leading 46.7% to 40.7%.