Trump and Slotkin Lead in Michigan Polls, but Outcomes Could Shift by November

Although Donald Trump currently leads in Michigan’s presidential election polls and Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin is ahead in the state’s Senate election polls, some survey data suggests these standings could change by November.

Looking at the presidential election, the latest poll from MIRS/Mitchell Research conducted March 15-16 with 627 likely voters shows Trump leading President Biden by three percentage points, 47%-44%. Another poll by CNN, conducted March 13-18 with 1,097 registered voters, shows Trump ahead 50%-42%. These results contribute to the RCP Average for Michigan, which shows Trump leading by 3.7 points, 47.5% to 43.8%.

Given Michigan’s large Muslim population, one significant issue for Biden in Michigan is his handling of the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. When the war started on Oct. 7, Biden was up 1.5 points, 45.3%-43.8%, in the RCP Average in Michigan at the time. However, since the onset of hostilities, his support has steadily declined, reaching a low of 40.7% in the RCP Average for the state in January.

The dissatisfaction with Biden’s approach was also evident in Michigan’s Democratic primary, where just over 101,000 people cast their votes for “Uncommitted” instead of Biden or any of the other candidates in protest against Biden’s handling of the conflict between Israel and Hamas.

However, a recent The Hill/Emerson poll conducted March 14-18 with 1,000 registered voters suggests these voters might still support Biden in the general election. Initially, when participants were asked whom they supported, Trump led with 45% to Biden’s 44%. However, when undecided voters were asked which way they lean, Trump and Biden ended up in a tie, each receiving exactly 50% of the vote.

The Michigan Senate race is likely to be a face-off between Democratic U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin and former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers. Rogers holds an 18-point lead in the Republican primary, and Slotkin has a 48-point lead in the Democrat primary. The official primaries for the Senate race are scheduled for Aug. 6.

In the general election matchup between Rogers and Slotkin, Slotkin holds a slight lead. The MIRS/Mitchell Research poll, which showed Trump ahead by three points, indicated a tie between Slotkin and Rogers. Meanwhile, the poll from The Hill/Emerson, which had Trump and Biden tied, places Slotkin ahead by two points. This poll is similar to the RCP Average for the Michigan Senate election shows Slotkin leading by one point, 38.8% to 37.8%. However, with 23.4% of poll participants undecided, this lead remains fluid and could change following the primary and as the November elections draw closer.