What the First Polls After Trump's Guilty Verdict Show

By Adeline Von Drehle
Published On: Last updated 06/04/2024, 12:40 AM EDT

Former President Donald Trump’s support dropped following a guilty verdict in his Manhattan criminal trial, according to three separate polls. A jury found Trump guilty of 34 felony charges related to falsifying business records. Trump now leads President Joe Biden by 0.5 points according to the RealClearPolitics Average, down from the 1.2-point edge he held the day before the verdict.

In a snap YouGov poll conducted mere hours after the verdict was announced, 50% of the Americans polled said they believed Trump was guilty, while 30% said they believed he was not guilty and another 19% said they were unsure. The results predictably fall along party lines: 15% of Republicans, 48% of independents, and 86% of Democrats think Trump is guilty, while 64% of Republicans, 25% of independents, and 5% of Democrats think he is innocent.

A Morning Consult poll conducted on Friday found 54% of registered voters approve of the verdict while 39% disapprove. Of those polled, 51% thought Trump should end his presidential campaign, while 43% said he should remain in the race. The majority of Republicans surveyed (79%) believe Trump should not drop out, though a not-insignificant 15% do think he should step aside.

Trump has given no indication that he will drop out of the race, and his campaign has in fact been invigorated by the verdict. Steven Cheung, Trump’s campaign communications director, said that Trump has seen “an outpouring of support” since his guilty verdict. This support includes record-breaking fundraising numbers of $53 million in just the first 24 hours, with 30% of those being new Trump donors.

Whether the guilty verdict will truly impact Trump’s success at the ballot box is unclear. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted between Thursday and Friday found that 10% of registered Republican voters say they are less likely to vote for Trump following his conviction, while 25% of registered independents said the same. On the flip side, 35% of Republicans said they were even more likely to support Trump following the verdict, while 18% of independents feel more inclined to vote for Trump now that he has been found guilty.

As is so often the case when it comes to the former president, opinions surrounding Trump’s trial have been politically charged. Nearly half the country (47%) believe the charges against Trump in this case were politically motivated, while just 38% believe they were not, according to a new ABC News/Ipsos poll. Trump himself has said Biden was behind the charges.

“This is all done by Biden and his people,” Trump said in a press conference at Trump Tower the morning after his conviction. “They are in total conjunction with the White House and the DOJ, just so you understand.”

The president, not surprisingly, had a different reaction. Speaking from the White House hours later, Biden asserted that Trump’s conviction reaffirmed “the American principle that no one is above the law.”

“Donald Trump was given every opportunity to defend himself,” Biden added. “A state case, not a federal case, was heard by a jury of 12 citizens. Twelve Americans. Twelve people like you, like millions of Americans who served on juries.”

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