Trump Gaining in Red and Blue States Nationwide 

By Jonathan Draeger
Published On: Last updated 06/20/2024, 07:24 PM EDT

Although a few swing states get most of the attention from poll analysts, some other states have recently had polls with interesting results. Despite former President Donald Trump’s small lead in nationwide polls, these recent results indicate a significant change from Biden’s victory in 2020.

First, looking at New York, Siena conducted a poll in the state from June 12-13 with 805 registered voters. Although Trump was behind in the poll, it was by a much smaller margin than he lost in New York in 2016 and 2020. While the poll had him behind by eight points, 47%-39%, President Joe Biden beat Trump by 23.1 points in 2020 and 21.3 points in 2016. Another recent poll out of New York, from The Hill/Emerson, took place May 28-30 and found similar results, with Biden ahead by seven points.

The Siena poll also indicated that Trump was more favored than other Republican candidates in the state. While Trump’s deficit is only eight points, when respondents were asked if they would vote for their Republican or Democratic congressional representative, Republicans faced a 15-point deficit, with 35% saying they would vote for the Republican and 50% saying Democratic.

A poll out of New Mexico indicated a similar effect but less dramatic. The most recent poll from the New Mexico Political Report/PPP that took place from June 13-14 found that Biden had a seven-point lead over Trump. In 2020, Biden won the state by 10.6 points, indicating that Trump might be gaining slightly in the state.

Trump’s expanding lead isn’t only a pattern in blue states. A Des Moines Register poll that took place from June 9-14 with 632 likely voters had Trump up by 18 points over Biden, 50-32, with third-party candidates independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Libertarian Chase Oliver receiving 9% and 2%, respectively. In 2020, Trump won the state by a narrower 8.2 points and by a similar 9.5 points in 2016.

In nationwide polling, Trump has also made a comeback. In 2020, he lost the national popular vote by 4.5 points, and in 2016, he lost it by 2.1 points. Now, polls are indicating a slight Trump lead, with the RCP Average consistently having Trump ahead by 0.5 to 2 points. Many of the southern swing states, including Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada, have similar stories, with Biden winning them in 2020, but Trump now leading by more than four points in their RCP Averages.

2024-06-20T00:00:00.000Z
Every Week
The Takeaway
A special edition RCP newsletter that keeps you in the know on all the latest polls this election season.

2024 Key Races

Get caught up on the most important polling for the most consequential races of 2024.