Trump Leads Swing States, Trails in Virginia: Pre-Assassination Attempt Polls

The last expected set of pre-assassination attempt and Republican National Convention polls were published on Monday. They indicate that Trump leads in each of the seven major swing states in the five-way race, but Republicans trail in most Senate races.

The latest poll that covered all the swing states is from The Times/SAY and was conducted June 4-12, with 800 to 1,000 registered voters per state. Similar to the trend in other post-debate polls, Trump maintained a strong lead.

The biggest difference from the norm was in Wisconsin, where the poll found Trump up 5 points over Biden, 43% to 38%, in the five-way race; independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy received 4%, independent Cornel West received 1%, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein received 1%. In the current Wisconsin RCP Average, Trump leads by 3.4 points in the state in the five-way race, up from 0.7 points one month ago on June 16.

In the other two northern swing states, Michigan and Pennsylvania, Trump led by 2 and 3 points, respectively, and none of the other candidates breached 4%. In Michigan, the race is still a toss-up, with the Michigan 5-way RCP Average having Trump up just 0.4 points. Another New York Times/Siena poll, conducted July 9-12 with 872 likely voters, also found that Trump was up a similar 2 points in the five-way race. The RCP Average for Pennsylvania falls between these two polls, with Trump currently leading by 2.8 points.

The New York Times/Siena poll also polled 661 likely voters in Virginia and found that Biden was up 2 points in the five-way race and 3 points in the head-to-head race. This is a 6+ point swing from 2020, when Biden won Virginia by 9.4 points; now in the five-way RCP Average for the state, Biden leads by only 1.7 points.

In the other southern swing states, Trump led by 4+ points in the five-way race, according to The Times/SAY poll. This echoes other recent polling in these states, as Trump also holds a significant lead in the five-way RCP Average: 6.4 points in Arizona, 5 points in Georgia, 5 points in Nevada, and 7 points in North Carolina.

The Times/SAY poll also looked at the Senate races for all these states and found that despite Trump’s lead in every state, Republicans trail in most toss-up Senate races.

The biggest difference between Trump and the Republican senators’ support was in Pennsylvania, where Trump led by 3 points in the five-way race, but incumbent Democrat Bob Casey led Republican candidate David McCormick by 12 points in The Times/SAY poll and 8 points in the New York Times poll. In every other swing state, the Democratic Senate candidate led by more than 7 points in the Times poll.

However, for Republicans to win back the Senate in November, they likely will not need to win any of these toss-up Senate races. Given that West Virginia is almost guaranteed to flip with Sen. Joe Manchin’s retirement and Montana is likely to flip with Republican Tim Sheehy up 5 points in the latest poll, current polls indicate the Senate will flip to at least a two-seat Republican majority, even if Democrats win in all the other toss-up states.