Trump Small Lead Nationally, Nearly Tied in Swing States

It has been just over a week since President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 presidential race and endorsed his Vice President Kamala Harris. Now that the dropout and endorsement have been factored into the polls, former President Trump remains ahead, but the races are close in important swing states.

Nationally, the latest poll from the Wall Street Journal, conducted from July 23-25 with 1,000 registered voters, found that in a direct contest between Trump and Harris, Trump leads by two points, 49% to 47%. However, when Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other independent candidates were included, Harris took the lead by one point, 45% to 44%, with Kennedy trailing at 4%. The latest Forbes/HarrisX poll found a similar effect, with Trump up by two points, 51% to 49%, in the direct race but tied when independent candidates were included.

The nationwide RCP Averages show Trump up by 1.7 points in the heads-up race and 1.8 points in the five-way race. Considering only polls in the RCP Average since Biden endorsed Harris on July 21, Trump’s lead shrinks slightly to 1.3 points in the five-way race and 1.6 points in the heads-up race. Before Biden dropped out, Trump’s lead was greater in both the heads-up race (3.1 points) and the five-way race (4.2 points).

Although there have been fewer polls in the swing states, they also reveal a trend of a shrinking lead for Trump. The latest Fox News polls, conducted from July 22-24 with just over 1,000 registered voters per state, found that in the direct race in Wisconsin, Trump is up by one point, but in Michigan and Pennsylvania, Trump and Harris are tied. In the five-way race, results were similarly close, with Trump and Harris tied in Wisconsin, Trump up by two points in Michigan, and Harris up by two points in Pennsylvania.

This trend is also reflected in the RCP Averages for the swing states. In Wisconsin, Trump’s lead is down to 0.7 points in the head-to-head race and tied in the five-way race. In Michigan, his lead is only one point in the heads-up race and 0.3 points in the five-way race. In Pennsylvania, his lead is three points in the heads-up race, although bolstered by a few pre-endorsement polls that had Trump up by more than six points, and 0.3 points in the five-way race. In Georgia, another closely watched swing state, Trump is up by 1.5 points in the average of post-endorsement heads-up polls and 2.5 points in the five-way polls.

Before Biden dropped out, Trump was up by two points in Michigan, 2.9 points in Wisconsin, 3.8 points in Georgia, and 4.5 points in Pennsylvania. This represented four-to-six-point swings from 2020, as Biden carried all these swing states in the previous presidential election.

In other words, Trump’s lead has shrunk to a tie or very slim margins in all the swing states, even though it has been just two weeks since the surge of support from the RNC and an assassination attempt against Trump. Polls in the coming weeks, after Harris’ VP announcement and the Democratic National Convention from August 19-22, will indicate whether Kamala Harris will be able to take a lead or be stuck trying to make up a few points going into the home stretch of the election season.