Trump vs. Harris: Arizona Polls Show a Tightening Race

Before President Biden dropped out of the 2024 presidential race, not a single poll had shown former President Trump trailing in Arizona the entire year, and Trump’s lead in the RCP Average never dipped below four points. However, now that Vice President Harris has become the Democratic nominee, the race is nearly tied in the state, with the latest poll indicating either Trump or Harris could win Arizona.

The latest poll from Noble Predictive Insights, taken before the Democratic National Convention and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. endorsed Trump from Aug. 12-16 with 1,003 registered voters, found that Trump led by three points in the state in a two-way race against Harris.

Two other recent polls in the state showed conflicting results. One from Rasmussen found Trump ahead by two points in a head-to-head race against Harris, while another from The New York Times/Siena found Harris ahead by five points. “Almost every poll is somewhere between Harris +5 and Trump +5. That suggests an almost tied race. We give a small edge to Trump in this poll – but, with more than two months to go, either candidate could win the state,” David Byler, Noble Predictive Insights chief of research, said.

The current RCP Average in Arizona shows the election is very close, with Trump up by only 0.5 points in the head-to-head but Harris leading by 0.6 points in the five-way race. However, all the polls in the five-way race were conducted before the Kennedy endorsement.

A memo from the Trump campaign about internal polling found that of the average 5% support Kennedy was receiving in polls, 53% would support Trump, 28% would support Harris, and 19% were undecided. If this analysis is correct, this 25% net gain for Trump would equate to about a 1% bump in Trump’s polling. In 2020, Biden won the state by just 0.3%, meaning this predicted 1% bump could be the margin Trump needs to win the state in November.

The Senate race is the other significant statewide federal election in Arizona in November. The current senator, Kyrsten Sinema, is retiring, leaving the seat open for new challengers: Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego, who has been a member of Congress since 2015, and former Arizona Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake.

Similar to other Senate races, Lake is polling much worse than Trump. The Rasmussen poll had Gallego up by eight points, and the NYT poll had Gallego up by nine. In the RCP Average for the Arizona Senate race, Gallego leads Lake 49% to 42.3%. In her previous gubernatorial election in 2022, Lake lost by 0.6 points.

The current betting odds also reflect the discrepancy between the presidential and Senate races. According to Polymarket betting odds, Trump has a 55% chance of winning the presidential election in Arizona, while Gallego has an 82% chance of winning the Senate election.