Trump With Slight Lead in Presidential Polling Coming Out of Primary Season

Both former President Trump and President Biden surpassed the delegate thresholds on Tuesday, becoming the presumptive Republican and Democratic nominees, respectively. The focus of polls has now shifted from the primary elections to the upcoming general election in November. Currently, Trump holds a narrow lead in these polls.

One of the largest recent national polls, conducted by Morning Consult with 6,300 registered voters March 8-10, showed Trump leading by one point over Biden, 44%-43%. The most recent national popular vote poll, carried out by The Economist/YouGov March 10-12 with 1,559 registered voters, found Trump up 2 points, 44%-42%. 

These polls mirror the current  RealClearPolitics Average, which shows Trump leading Biden 47.2%-45.1%. This indicates a shift from the trends observed in the last two elections, where Trump trailed in the national popular vote, eventually losing by 2.1 points to Hillary Clinton in 2016 and by 4.5 points to Joe Biden in 2020.

Donald Trump is currently ahead in the key battleground states expected to be crucial in determining the next president. In five out of seven potential swing states, Trump leads by more than 3 percentage points according to current RCP Averages: Arizona (5.2), Nevada (5.6), Michigan (3.6), North Carolina (5.5), and Georgia (5.7).

The other two swing states are much closer, with Trump leading by 1 point in Wisconsin and only 0.6 in Pennsylvania.

Another aspect to consider is that the election dynamics extend beyond Trump and Biden. The participation of independent candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein of the Green Party, could potentially influence the election outcome.

Polls including other candidates usually show a further shift towards Trump in the national popular vote. A Forbes/HarrisX poll from Monday, involving 2,017 registered voters and conducted March 8-10, had Trump up 4 points, 52%-48%, when the election was just between Trump and Biden. However, with the other three candidates considered, his lead increased to 6 points over Biden, with the breakdown being 44% for Trump, 38% for Biden, 15% for RFK Jr., 2% for West, and 2% for Stein. 

The current national RCP Average for the 5-way race has Trump up 2.7 points over Biden, 41.1%-38.4%, with RFK Jr. at 12.4%, West at 2.4%, and Stein at 1.8%.